Cold as a tool of war! ''General Winter'' helps Russia in the war

Russia is carrying out large-scale attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, trying to use winter as a tool of war to pressure the civilian population, writes the Atlantic Council.

As cold Arctic winds sweep across Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin is using winter as a weapon again. According to analysts, he would like to see all Europeans, not just Ukrainians, shiver in the dark, counting on the long and cold winter to break their resolve to support Kiev.

Before attacking Ukraine, Russia was the main supplier of natural gas to Europe. Now it has shut down most of its pipelines, fulfilling Putin's threat last fall to "freeze" Europe, unless its leaders lift tough economic sanctions against Moscow.

The surge in energy prices has already sparked street protests in several European capitals. But Putin’s call for "General Zima" may be just the latest in a long line of miscalculations that have turned the "special military operation" into a strategic nightmare for Russia.

In the long run, this will hurt Moscow, as European countries buy gas from elsewhere: Norway, the Netherlands, Qatar, Nigeria and, increasingly, the United States. Despite a shortage of liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals in Europe, American companies have managed to triple their natural gas exports to the continent this year by re-routing supplies destined for other parts of the world. EU countries are filling their underground storage facilities, praying for a short and mild winter.

In any case, the hardships Putin wants to impose on Europeans pale in comparison to what he is already doing to the people of Ukraine. Since October, Russian forces have been carrying out relentless air strikes, launching cruise missiles and drones against the country’s power grid and power plants, killing civilians and leaving millions of Ukrainians without electricity and heating as temperatures plummet.

On January 13, Ukrainian Deputy Energy Minister Mykola Kolisnyk confirmed, after yet another massive shelling of cities across the country, that Russia had deployed full force to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

“Today, Russia launched its attack, just five days after the previous bombing, using drones and ballistic missiles. "We see that the enemy is deploying all its forces to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure," Kolisnik stressed.

Kiev has been particularly hard hit. According to Ukrenergo CEO Vitaly Zaychenko, about 70% of the capital's approximately 3.5 million residents were left without electricity on Tuesday. A significant number of apartments also had no heating amid the freezing weather.

"The Russians are trying to close the city and force people to leave Kiev," he told the Kyiv Independent.

Kiev has become one of many cities where emergency and planned power outages have been introduced, sometimes lasting more than a day. Power plants supplying Odessa, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhia, Sumy, Chernihiv and other major cities have also been hit.

Analysts note that this is not the Kremlin’s first attempt to use the cold season as a weapon. Russia launched massive air strikes on civilian energy back in October 2022, laying the foundation for a tactic it repeats every winter. At the same time, the current destruction of Ukraine’s energy system is considered the most serious since the start of the full-scale war.

“They want to break us“

In many regions of the country, the sounds of generators have become a familiar winter background. Ukrainians are installing backup power supplies and using portable gas stoves, adapting to long power and heating outages.

Against these attacks, Kiev emphasizes the urgent need for international support. The coming weeks are expected to be some of the most difficult for civilians since the war began, testing the resilience of Ukrainians to the limit.

“I think the Russians want to break us. They want to make Ukrainians angry and unhappy so that we protest, but that won't happen,” Kyiv resident Valentina Verteletska told the British newspaper The Guardian.

According to her, Russian pressure only strengthens society, and the war reveals the true nature of people - in particular their willingness to help each other.

Experts believe that massive strikes on civilian infrastructure are one of the few strategies that Vladimir Putin is currently relying on, trying to achieve a breakthrough against the backdrop of a lack of success on the front. It is estimated that by 2025, Russia had captured less than 1% of Ukrainian territory, suffering huge losses, and was still fighting for settlements near the front line as of February 2022.

The situation in the Ukrainian energy sector

As UNIAN previously reported, as a result of a Russian missile strike on the Kiev TPP-5, the facility suffered serious damage. It was attacked by 5 missiles. TPP-5 was so damaged that it is currently impossible to resume the supply of coolant through the network.

The director of the Center for Energy Research, Alexander Kharchenko, noted that Russia has changed the tactics of strikes against Ukraine since last winter, having realized that it could not carry out a nationwide power outage. Therefore, it has chosen the three most energy-deficient regions of Ukraine for intensive strikes.