The US has called on Ukraine to give up Donbas in order to receive security guarantees. Kiev would make a strategic mistake if it accepted this, writes the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The US continues to pressure Ukraine to hand over to Russia the part of Donetsk region not occupied by the aggressor in exchange for security guarantees from the US. However, if Kiev agrees to this, it will make a strategic mistake.
If the current pace of the offensive continues, Russia is unlikely to be able to capture the entire Donetsk region by August 2027, but capturing this territory without a fight would give the aggressor an advantageous position to resume its offensive in the southwestern and central parts of Ukraine after a rest and recovery.
According to sources in the Financial Times, the Trump administration continues to pressure Ukraine to give up its own territories that Putin wants but does not yet control in Donbas. The United States has hinted that it will provide more weapons to strengthen Ukraine's armed forces if Ukraine agrees to withdraw its troops from the entire Donbas. For Kiev, however, the security guarantees that Washington promises are too vague, writes OBOZ.ua.
Russia is not in a position to quickly capture the entire Donbas, and abandoning it would be a strategic mistake for Ukraine. ISW analysts insist that concessions to Ukraine regarding territory that Russia is unlikely to quickly or easily seize militarily would be a strategic mistake.
Vladimir Putin will have to spend a significant amount of resources, time and manpower to seize the unoccupied part of Donbas. And even if the Russian Federation were able to maintain the pace of the offensive that it was moving at the end of November 2025, in the most optimistic scenario, the Russians would not be able to seize Donbas before August 2027.
At the same time, analysts note that the enemy’s offensive slowed down in late December and early January. This is likely due to worsening weather conditions. ISW adds, however, that this delay indicates that the Russian Federation's efforts to seize the rest of the Donetsk region may take even longer than previously projected.
A strong Ukrainian army and reliable security guarantees from Ukraine's Western allies could deter a future Russian invasion. However, the Kremlin has repeatedly rejected the possibility of such guarantees from the West.
The Kremlin is unlikely to agree to any agreement that includes substantial guarantees for Ukraine's security.