The beginning of 2026 has faced Romania, and not only it, with complex geopolitical challenges. The invitation to join the controversial Peace Council proposed by US President Donald Trump is being received ambiguously in the country, while at the same time, the EU is once again talking about a "two-speed Europe," in which Romania is at risk of isolation, at least because it is outside the eurozone, but not only.
How was the invitation to join Donald Trump's Peace Council accepted in Bucharest?
Romanian President Nikusor Dan reacted cautiously to the US President's invitation to join the Peace Council, whose statute was signed during the World Economic Forum in Davos by about 20 countries from the Middle East, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Caucasus. From the EU, only Bulgaria and Hungary signed Trump's initiative.
“This is an invitation that honors us, and its main goal is to stabilize the situation in the Middle East. The way in which the initial statute of this mechanism was drafted gave rise to some problems. As soon as we received it, we started consultations and now we have all entered into a bilateral and consultative process of negotiating this statute, so that it is compatible with other statutes (…). This is a process that will last weeks or even months“, said Romanian President Nicos Dan, quoted by the newspaper “Gundul“.
Prime Minister Ilie Bologian of the National Liberal Party said that Romania should analyze its participation in this council together with European leaders. Asked by Asked by Digi 24 TV whether Romania has a billion dollars to become part of the council, Bologian replied: “Of course, Romania has the opportunity to allocate a billion dollars for one or another project, but it must be calculated very well how we will do this, because every leu that we allocate for one or another project must be clearly justified from the point of view of the national interest and the economic situation we are in“.
The Social Democratic Party and the Alliance for the Unification of Romanians, which are the largest parties in the Romanian parliament, in the government and opposition respectively, took pro-Trump positions.
Sorin Grindeanu, the leader of the Social Democratic Party, commented, quoted by the news website Hotnews: “When the main security provider for your country, in this case Romania, extends you an invitation to participate in the Peace Council, you say “yes” without reservations, and the costs never are too high“.
Giorge Simion, leader of the largest opposition party, the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), summarized his party's position in a podcast on the “Gundul“ newspaper: “The parties in power follow Ursula von der Leyen (President of the European Commission - ed.) and Macron (President of France - ed.), we go with Donald Trump, for better or for worse (…)“.
Last week, Ghiorge Simion was on a visit to the United States, where he attended an event at the “Trump Kennedy Art Center“ in Washington, where a cake in the shape of Greenland with icing with the American flag was cut. The incident sparked sharp criticism of Simion in Romania, including from the so-called sovereignists, to whom he belongs.
How are they perceived initiative Romanians and is there a dilemma in Bucharest “USA or EU“?
A sociological survey by the Avangard agency, conducted in January, showed that Romanians do not have a clear opinion on the issue of the country's membership in the Peace Council. Forty-four percent are of the opinion that Romania should have joined Donald Trump's initiative, 36 percent are of the opposite opinion, and 20 percent do not give a definite answer.
At the same time, the survey showed that 62 percent of Romanians trust NATO, 50 percent - the UN and also 50 percent - the EU. Only 33 percent trust the European Parliament, and 32 percent - the European Commission, according to the survey data quoted in the Romanian media.
Donald Trump's initiative has opened up a controversy in Romania and whether a choice should be made between the EU and the USA and whether it is even Bucharest is facing a similar dilemma.
“In the security sphere, we are dependent on the US, economically we are dependent on the EU. Metaphorically speaking, one can also die of hunger, and not only in war“, political analyst Cristian Hrytsuk commented to the “Adeverul“ newspaper. “Poverty and lack of funds for development can lead to chaos in a country. And, unfortunately for us, Romania is not in the best shape to withstand economic shocks now in the face of new storms“, Hrytsuk pointed out, quoted by “Adeverul“.
Romanian MEP and former Defense Minister Vasile Dancu of the Social Democratic Party admitted in an interview with the Romanian section of Radio France Internationale (RFI) that Romania feels somewhat torn between “two affiliations“.
“On the one hand, we have a strategic partnership with the United States, which gives us peace of mind and a sense of security, if not security itself, there are important American bases in Romania from a logistical and operational point of view. On the other hand, we have our membership in the EU, which modernizes our society and provides us with the means, even for Romania's survival“, Vasile Dancu told RFI. According to him, Romania is not obliged to choose between the EU and the US and compared such a choice to a situation in which a child has to choose between his mother and father.
Political analyst Cristian Hrytsuk noted, however, that “in the extremely unstable international environment, in which the rules of international law and respect for the sovereignty of small states become vital, Romania must carefully preserve the diplomatic balance that has guaranteed its security in recent decades“.
Philosopher, public figure and analyst Catalin Bucimeanu pointed out in an author's article on the pages of “Adeverul“ that the increasingly visible tension between Washington and Brussels is putting diplomatic balancing to the test. According to Bucimianu, the "erosion of the traditional transatlantic consensus", which has long allowed Bucharest to avoid difficult strategic choices, is turning the previous formula in Romanian foreign policy "with both the US and the EU" from a convenient rhetoric into a potentially dangerous illusion.
Romania and the idea of a "two-speed Europe"
While some politicians in Bucharest have turned their attention to Washington, the EU has once again spoken of a "two-speed Europe" amid a loss of momentum in the European integration processes in Romania.
German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil revived an idea from France 10 years ago this week, proposing a new format composed of the most developed countries on the continent - Germany, France, Poland, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands. According to Klingbeil, “the time for a two-speed Europe has come“ due to the need for faster and more effective action in the face of growing geopolitical uncertainty, weak economic growth and deep internal differences within the EU, Reuters reported.
The letter from the German Finance Minister to his colleagues from the six countries, which Reuters has seen, contains a four-point plan on how to accelerate the capital markets union, strengthen the euro, better coordinate defense investments and secure key raw materials.
“For Romania, a two-speed Europe means, first of all, less political and economic influence from Brussels”, believes the famous Romanian journalist Sabina Fati. According to her, the implementation of this initiative could lead to fewer funds, fewer investments and further reduce the already small role that Bucharest has at the negotiating table in Brussels.
„Romania was happy to join the club and had no claims, probably because, together with Bulgaria – "the two poorest and least reformed countries of the former socialist bloc, caught the last train to the EU," Sabina Fati commented for the Romanian edition of Deutsche Welle.
However, she recalls that in the meantime Bulgaria has prepared a serious strategy for joining the eurozone and, although the country has gone through 7 rounds of parliamentary elections in the last four years, it has managed to adopt the euro this year.
„So Bulgaria will integrate more deeply into the EU and will probably become more significant for Brussels, including from a strategic point of view,“ Sabina Fati predicted.
This week, during a visit to Germany, Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bologian admitted that, unlike Bulgaria, Romania still does not meet the necessary criteria for entering the eurozone. Bologianu pointed out that one of the main obstacles is the country's excessive budget deficit, which in 2024 reached the highest level in the EU of 9.3 percent.
The prime minister pointed out at a joint press conference with his German counterpart Friedrich Merz that until Romania achieves a budget deficit below 3 percent of GDP, the topic of adopting the common European currency “is not on the agenda“.
Bologianu's coalition government, in which Sorin Grindeanu's Social Democrats also have a “heavy” say, has taken a series of economic measures to control the budget deficit. The belt-tightening measures, which also include increases in taxes and fees, are being met with mass protests from professional and social groups.
And although, according to data from the Ministry of Finance, Romania is successfully managing to restore its public finances, ending 2025 with a budget deficit of 7.65 percent of GDP (compared to a target of 8.4 percent, which the government committed to the European Commission), tensions within the ruling coalition are not easing, and the Social Democratic Party is constantly threatening to leave.
The Romanian media often comment on a possible alliance between the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Alliance for the Unification of Romanians (AUR), which currently enjoy the highest level of trust among Romanians. The opposition party even overtakes the SDP, which won the most votes in the last elections in 2024.
Sorin Grindeanu has repeatedly denied the possibility of an alliance with Gheorghe Simion's nationalists, but it seems that the attitude towards the US and, in particular, towards Donald Trump's initiatives is something on which the two parties have common ground.
According to political analyst Cristian Hrytsuk, the two leaders “play with foreign policy only for personal gain“, but philosopher Catalin Bucimeanu draws attention to the nationalist bias among a number of SDP members and the openly declared nationalist vision of AUR.
“The two parties, quoted with nearly 58 percent of the votes (AUR - nearly 40 percent and SDP - 18 percent), made it clear that they 100 percent agree with Trump's America“, writes Catalin Bucimeanu in an author's article for the newspaper “Adeverul“.
“America, which no longer lectures them on the fight against corruption and the rule of law, clearly appeals to the leaders of these parties“, points out Catalin Bucimeanu and recalls that for years the Romanian social democrats and nationalists from AUR have been rebelling against the conditions set for them by the West.
“Their secret dream is that under the American umbrella, Romania will receive full security guarantees against Russia and perhaps even realize some nationalist fantasies. For example, an alliance with the Republic of Moldova, and possibly with Transnistria, against the backdrop of the disintegration of Ukraine. (…) But these illusions ignore the harsh economic reality. Approximately 72 percent of Romania's exports go to EU countries. Any severance of ties with the European single market would lead to the collapse of the Romanian economy, destroying any theoretical benefit of an exclusive American "protectorate", warns Bucimianu in his article for "Adeverul".
Romania, like other countries around the world, will have to make important decisions related to its foreign policy and geopolitical orientation.
“Everything that was built in 70 years, after 1945, collapsed in one term of President Trump“, commented political analyst Cristian Hrytsuk, quoted by "Adeverul". “In an unstable world, foreign policy cannot be reduced to symbolic gestures, photos or declarations that aim to leave a short-term good impression. "The price could be much higher and be paid by the entire country," the analyst warned, referring to the positions of the leaders of the two largest parties in Romania - the Social Democratic Party and the AUR.