The Iranian regime is looking for a way out of the impasse it has found itself in over security issues. Today, for the first time, direct talks will be held between official representatives of Iran and the US - the meeting in Oman will be attended by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and representatives of US President Donald Trump - Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
The focus of the negotiations may be a package of proposals that was prepared together with Russia, the Iranian newspapers Jamaran and Entekhab reported, citing Russia Today. According to them, these proposals could be acceptable to both Iran and the United States.
"These reports have not been confirmed by Tehran and some details may differ from the actual proposals. From an Iranian perspective, however, they appear generally acceptable and were apparently discussed during the visit to Moscow by the Secretary of the Iranian National Security Council, Ali Larijani," Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the Berlin-based "Science and Politics" Foundation, told DW.
A win-win situation for Moscow?
Azizi points out that Larijani's unannounced meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin took place on January 30. Russia, but also other countries, are trying to prevent a war that could destabilize the entire region. Moscow has always insisted that Iran should not possess nuclear weapons, as this would not be in its interest, Azizi recalled.
"At the same time, Moscow sees the current situation as a favorable one, which promises a triple win - first, a weakened Iran would be more closely tied to Russia. Second, Moscow would align itself politically with US President Trump and support him in reaching a deal with Tehran. And third, the Kremlin is trying to further marginalize Europe's influence not only in the Iranian case, but in the entire Middle East, and to present European actors as politically insignificant."
Russia has offered the state-owned Russian company "Rosatom" to monitor and control limited uranium enrichment in Iran. The aim is to ensure that enrichment remains strictly within the agreed limits.
A central point in the negotiations is likely to be the fate of about 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (up to 60 percent), which has been at the center of controversy since June, when the US struck Iranian nuclear facilities.
Iranian journalist Hadi Mohammadi, who has been writing about the nuclear program for years and has access to inside sources, reported on his X profile that uranium enriched to 60 percent will be used as a bargaining chip to lift sanctions. It is not known whether Russia will participate in this.
"It's no longer about the nuclear program"
According to the "Wall Street Journal" If the talks are not interrupted, they could be continued in two directions - one dealing with Iran's nuclear program, the other with a wider range of issues, including US demands to limit Iran's missile program.
"In my opinion, the main dispute between Iran and the US is related to Tehran's missile program, not its nuclear program," says Azizi. Iran threatens Israel with destruction, but at the same time insists that it does not want to give up its ability to defend itself.
According to Iranian media, the Kremlin has offered to provide guarantees that Iran's missile program will not be used to attack Israel or the United States. It remains unclear whether these guarantees will be enough for Israel.
In mid-January, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his readiness to mediate between Iran and Israel. According to Azizi, Putin is trying to redefine and revive Russia's influence in the Middle East, which was partially weakened by the war in Ukraine.
A deal of necessity
Shortly before the start of the talks, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted on concessions from Tehran. In order for the talks to lead to a "meaningful result", attention must be paid to the range of ballistic missiles, support for terrorist organizations, the nuclear program and the attitude towards its own people, he said on February 4.
In an interview with DW, Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East expert and professor at the London School of Economics, recalled that President Trump had promised help to the protesters in Iran, but this did not follow. The goals have clearly changed now, he points out.
It is now only about nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, as well as ending Iran's support for regional allies. "We are now talking only about geopolitics," Gerges summarizes.
Will a long-term agreement be reached?
During the protests in Iran, Donald Trump addressed the opposition in the Islamic Republic and wrote: "Help is on the way". However, over the weekend he expressed confidence that an agreement can be reached with the Iranian leadership.
"I am skeptical about the prospects for success, the long-term viability and the real impact of a potential agreement at this stage," commented Hamidreza Azizi. According to him, Iran is negotiating only to avoid war in the short term. "Security and the preservation of power are the main priorities of the regime. The ultimate goal is an agreement that excludes a military option or the threat of one," the expert says.
It seems that there is no fundamental change in Iran's foreign policy under the leadership of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. But the rift between the US and Iran is so deep that a military escalation is always possible. In recent weeks, the US has transferred significant strike power to the region - warships, including aircraft carriers, fighter jets and soldiers have been deployed there.
Author: Shabnam von Hein