The most influential man in Iran is dead after nearly four decades in power. Ali Khamenei ruled the country with a firm hand. What are the scenarios for Iran going forward and can a radical turnaround be expected?
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei imposed his decisive imprint on power in Iran for decades. As Iran's supreme spiritual leader and head of state, he was considered untouchable and had the final say on all important matters. Both the president and the government were subordinate to him.
The Role of Khamenei
Ali Khamenei's foreign policy made the fight against the "eternal enemies" Israel and the United States a guiding principle. He transformed the Revolutionary Guard into a leading military force and an influential economic partner.
Since the 1990s, Tehran has supported Iran-affiliated militias and rebel groups in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories - as a means of fighting Israel.
Along with Iran's disputed nuclear program, Khamenei has also accelerated the production of ballistic missiles.
What does Khamenei's death mean for Iran?
Khamenei's death marks a turning point for Iran - This is a momentous change, the consequences of which are not yet predictable. However, most experts believe that the regime is unlikely to collapse. The system of government has strengthened significantly in the almost 50 years since the revolution.
Gerlinde Greitl, a political scientist at the University of Regensburg, describes the Iranian regime as extremely stable. Iran has clearly taken into account the possibility of Khamenei being eliminated, which is why last year it nominated candidates to replace him in case he is killed.
What are the possible scenarios for the future?
The DPA agency summarizes the most likely ones:
- A return to the old status quo: a new government is formed, protests in the country are violently suppressed, and Tehran continues to launch air strikes. This could lead to the parties involved in the conflict taking a new mediation initiative.
- Palace coup in Tehran: At least in theory, it is possible for a separate wing of the Iranian power system to rebel and take over, for example with the help of the military or the Revolutionary Guard. However, so far, the country's ruling circles have always been loyal to the system in the Islamic Republic, and cracks in this system are not noticeable.
- New face, new course: According to experts, it is possible that the US and Israel will continue their military strikes until a more moderate figure in the leadership in Tehran takes power and agrees to dialogue with the attackers – especially with regard to Iran's nuclear program and the production of ballistic missiles.
- The Shah's Son as a Transitional Figure: The son of the deposed Shah Reza Pahlavi, who has been living in exile since 1989, is entering the game as a transitional ruler. According to his own words, he would like to pave the way for a new constitution and free elections under international supervision. Pahlavi is one of the most popular figures among the Iranian opposition in exile, but how much influence he has in the country itself is unclear.
What is needed for a political turnaround?
The opinion among expert circles is that a real regime change in Iran is unlikely until there is a rebellion in the ruling circles or the Revolutionary Guards side with the opposition.
Israeli analyst Raz Tsimt does not see a serious threat to the stability of the Israeli leadership. But if it uses violence against the opposition, it risks provoking new American reactions, the expert told the magazine “Spiegel“.
“The joy of the people in the streets is one thing, but getting the Revolutionary Guard to side with the opposition is quite another”, says political scientist Gerlinde Greitl, who does not believe that “air strikes can bring about regime change”. According to her, the photos of the jubilant people in Tehran should not be perceived as the beginning of the end of the Iranian regime.