German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned on Monday that Russia was producing far more weapons than it needs for the war in Ukraine, which he said showed preparations for future conflicts, Reuters reported, quoted by BTA.
“Moscow is using a large part of its budget ... to replenish its stocks for future conflicts, not to send weapons to the front in Ukraine“, he told German lawmakers in parliament.
“On average, only 80 of the 150 short- and medium-range missiles that Russia can produce per month are used in Ukraine“, he added.
Ukraine is preparing for months of fierce fighting for strategic strongholds in the eastern Donetsk region, which are key Russian military targets. This will be the first major test for the newly appointed commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Mykhailo Drapati, and his new commanders.
Moscow's larger forces are advancing on the so-called belt of fortress cities, which includes the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Their capture would bring Russia closer to its goal of establishing full control over the Donetsk region, an industrial region in eastern Ukraine.
The casualties are already too great, and despite renewed diplomatic contacts, military experts expect Russia to intensify its offensive as winter approaches. A visit to Kiev over the weekend by US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner revived stalled peace talks, but there are no signs of a major breakthrough at this stage. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he expects the war to continue this winter.
The expected battle for the Donetsk region is shaping up to be one of the most significant stages of the war this year. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, capturing the rest of it would mean a major political and military victory.
For Ukraine, holding its positions there is essential to protecting its main defense lines in the east and to prove the need for the changes made to the military command, which were intended to stop the slow but confident Russian advance.
Recent appointments by the reform-minded 43-year-old Drapati, who replaced Oleksandr Syrsky in July of this year, have placed respected and proven commanders at the helm of the region's defense.
The new command takes control of a relatively stable front line given the slow pace of the Russian advance, military analyst Emil Castelhelmi said. But he warned that the outcome on the battlefield remains unpredictable.
"The situation can still develop in many different ways and a variety of scenarios are still being envisaged," added Kastehelmi, who is part of the Finnish think tank "Black Bird".
Ukraine has repeatedly rejected Putin's demands to cede between 15 and 20 percent of the Donetsk region, which Russia has not yet managed to capture. On Sunday, Zelensky described the fate of the region as "the main issue in this war.".
CREAPING OFFENSIVE
Russian forces are less than 15 kilometers from Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the two largest cities in the belt of fortresses. Both towns have come under increasing attacks from drones and guided bombs, regional authorities said.
"In just a few months, they have gradually turned from thriving cities into places where you are afraid to even walk on the street," said Andriy Derun, military director of the leading Ukrainian charity "Return Alive", which supports the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
September and October could be the months with the most fierce fighting, with Russia likely to try to launch new attacks with mechanized units, said Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"As weather conditions worsen, drones become less effective. And that is usually when the Russians try to restore maneuverability on the battlefield," Kofman said. The analyst added that Ukraine has built a reliable defense against such attacks, recalling the unsuccessful Russian offensive in July in the area of the besieged city of Dobropilya.
NEW COMMANDERS TAKE THE helm
The defense of the Donetsk region will be led by two of Ukraine's most famous commanders - Andriy Biletsky, commander of the Third Army Corps, and Denis Prokopenko of the First Corps of the "Azov" National Guard.
Both are credited with building disciplined and technologically advanced armed forces numbering tens of thousands of servicemen.
Earlier this year, Biletsky’s corps stabilized part of the front near Sloviansk, the northern strategic stronghold of the belt of fortresses. Last year, Prokopenko’s "Azov" Corps thwarted a major Russian offensive near Dobropilya that threatened to breach Ukrainian lines.
Pavlo Palisa, Zelensky’s military adviser, said the promotions of the two commanders were "completely logical" as they were proven leaders who "enjoyed respect and authority." They will be assisted by Airborne Colonel Emil Ishkulov, another new-generation commander who is popular with soldiers for putting their lives first, said Derun of the charity "Return Alive". His 11th Army Corps is responsible for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Syrsky, Drapati's predecessor, was criticized for what some observers described as a Soviet-style command with a tolerance for heavy casualties and personal involvement in the conduct of combat operations even at the micro level.
Kofman noted that Drapati gives the impression of a commander-in-chief who delegates more authority to commanders at the operational level – a change that he said was intended to make defenses in the east "much more coordinated."
BUILDING ON SMALL SUCCESS
Ukraine is entering its autumn military campaign with the aim of building on its modest successes on the battlefield this year. Kiev said it had managed to recapture more than 700 square kilometers of territory in the southeast of the country in a months-long "precision" counterattack.
Blackbird's Castelli also noted signs of a successful operation by Biletsky's Third Army Corps in the area of the strategic town of Liman to eliminate the Russian arc that had formed in the front line. But he said the scale of the operation remained unclear.
In a video posted on Monday, Biletsky, based in the picturesque monastery town of Svyatogorsk, west of the Russian border, mocked Putin for his claim that Russian forces had captured the city.
"This is a rear area for our corps," he said.
However, the Ukrainian army does not yet have enough manpower to conduct large-scale offensive operations. Both Drapati and the new defense minister, Yevgen Khmara, have yet to reform the mobilization system, which is plagued by corruption and mismanagement.
Earlier this month, Putin said that Moscow was winning the war and that he had no doubt that the Ukrainians would "collapse.".
However, analysts say that Russia has not found an effective solution to the conundrum of Ukraine's defense, which relies heavily on the use of drones.
"In general, it is difficult to say how the Russians could achieve success at more than a tactical level," concludes Castelhelmi.