The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Liman direction has destroyed the northern flank of the Russian plan to encircle the Ukrainian defense in Donbas. According to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, cited by Euronews, the Russian plan envisaged an offensive simultaneously from Liman in the north and from the Pokrovsk and Dobropole area in the southwest.
The two Russian groups were supposed to meet near Barvinkovo in the Kharkiv region. Thus, Moscow aimed to encircle the Ukrainian-controlled part of Donetsk region, including the so-called Donbas fortress belt – network of defensive positions and logistical routes.
Ukraine has eliminated the dangerous Russian salient
Ukrainian forces have advanced in several areas along the Liman direction and eliminated the Russian salient that was threatening Slavyansk from the northeast. As a result, Russian troops were deprived of the positions necessary to press on the northern approaches to the Ukrainian defensive belt.
“The defeat of the northern flank has forced Russia to abandon plans to advance on Slavyansk from the northeast“, the Euronews article states. The preservation of the Liman region has allowed Ukraine to retain important supply routes, while the Russian group in the southwest now has to carry out a significantly more complex task on its own.
Infantry attacks do not ensure a quick breakthrough
ISW estimates that the Russian advance with infantry, supported by drones and artillery strikes, is not enough for a quick mechanized breakthrough that would destroy Ukrainian defenses on a large scale. “At the moment, Ukraine seems to have stopped the offensive“, the analysts conclude.
However, they warn that the situation on the front remains fluid. This means that Russian forces can change their tactics and redirect resources, but at this point the northern part of the encirclement plan has been thwarted. The southern offensive from the Pokrovsk and Dobropole area remains a separate direction, unable to rely on the planned connection with the Russian units from Liman.
Sources: unian.net, euronews.com