Russian oil exports via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026 are already nearly 50 percent higher than last year's volume, with about 20 million barrels shipped to Asia from the start of the navigation season in July to mid-October, traders said, with data confirming the trend, Reuters reported.
The Northern Sea Route connects western Russian ports with Asian markets across the ice-covered waters of the Arctic and is considered a more dangerous and expensive route. But this year it has become more attractive due to disruptions to shipping through the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea region, traders said.
Tanker oil rates have soared to record levels as wars in Iran and Ukraine have increased inflationary pressures and made U.S. crude unavailable to Asian refiners, forcing them to seek alternative supplies from the Middle East and Latin America.
That has made the high fees for ships using the Northern Sea Route, which requires icebreaker assistance, less onerous than the costs of the usual route to Asia via the Red Sea, traders said.
For Russia, which controls the Northern Sea Route, it provides a safe alternative to European waters, where tankers carrying Russian oil have been detained multiple times this year.
According to preliminary estimates by traders, the volume of Russian oil exported via the Arctic route could grow by another 5-10 million barrels by the end of the navigation season. Last navigation season, Russia shipped 13 million barrels.
„Gazprom Neft“ (Gazprom Neft), one of Russia's major oil companies, will increase its deliveries via the Northern Sea Route by about 35 percent this year compared to 2025, Chief Executive Officer Alexander Dyukov told reporters in Moscow on Friday.
Russia ships significant amounts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Asia via the Northern Sea Route, as well as other goods. LNG shipments along the route are also expected to increase this year after Arctic LNG shipments begin.
In September, President Vladimir Putin told an economic forum in Vladivostok that Russia expects annual cargo throughput along the Northern Sea Route to double to 70 million tons by the end of the decade.
Rosneft's new large-scale oil project in northern Russia, Vostok Oil, which opened last month, is already contributing to the increase in volumes transported along the Northern Sea Route.