The peace process between Russia and Ukraine has stalled as fighting continues, and Kiev and its European partners are trying to work out a common proposal for Washington. According to a CNN analysis published by UNIAN, the negotiations are developing according to two parallel scenarios: Ukraine and Europe are looking for an acceptable format for an agreement, and Moscow is offering the US economic cooperation while continuing military operations.
The contacts are involving President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. After the talks in Oslo on October 20, Witkoff is expected to talk with Russian President Vladimir Putin. What specific proposals the US side will present have not been announced.
Donbas remains the main dispute
The main obstacle to an agreement remains the Kremlin's conditions. Moscow insists that Ukraine hand over the part of Donbass that remains under its control without new hostilities. Russia has been making other demands for years - demilitarization of Ukraine, refusal of NATO membership and a change of leadership in Kiev.
Kiev does not accept territorial concessions as a path to peace. The areas under Ukrainian control in the Donetsk region are of key strategic importance, as they conceal the routes to the central part of the country.
According to an estimate cited by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Russia controls 89% of the Donetsk region. He said that the Ukrainian side views the remaining territory as a last line of defense.
“From there, the path to Kiev is direct“, Rubio said, citing the assessment of Ukrainian and American military strategists.Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Dobropole and Konstantinovka continue to be subjected to Russian strikes with drones and guided bombs. Civilian life in these cities is severely restricted. According to Rubio, Russia uses drones, ballistic missiles and attacks on energy infrastructure, while Ukraine strikes Russian oil refineries.
Washington's pressure remains unpredictable
The analysis points to several decisions by the Trump administration that could benefit Moscow. These include actions related to Russian diesel, a temporary energy truce, restrictions on Starlink satellite communications and intelligence sharing.
Also mentioned are delayed deliveries of US air defense missiles, calls for Volodymyr Zelensky to resign and a reduction in US financial support for Ukraine. An increasing share of military aid costs is being borne by European countries.
However, US support has not been completely stopped. Zelensky said he expects a positive response from Rubio on Patriot and Starlink systems, and also thanked him for the restoration of intelligence sharing.
„We are grateful that intelligence sharing with the United States is now working“, said the Ukrainian president.Rubio had a 45-minute phone call with Zelensky. The contact shows that Washington and Kiev are maintaining a dialogue despite their differences. The Oslo meetings discussed security guarantees for Ukraine and the possibility of trilateral talks between Trump, Putin and Zelensky.
According to CNN, Trump's changes in course are related not only to the negotiations, but also to domestic political calculations ahead of the US midterm elections. Meanwhile, Ukraine and its European partners are preparing for an option in which Kiev will have to rely more on its own resources, without interrupting diplomatic contacts with Washington.
Sources: unian.net, edition.cnn.com