„Rosneft“ is facing a double whammy: Ukrainian attacks on its refineries and a delay in its massive Arctic Vostok Oil project. This comes despite the start of exports from a new terminal in the Arctic and calls into question the company's ability to simultaneously maintain production, repair damaged facilities and develop new fields.
In September, Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin reported to Vladimir Putin on the loading of the first tanker with Vostok Oil oil. Almost $50 billion has been invested in the construction of pipelines, tanks and port infrastructure. The plan is to increase Russia's current oil production by 10% by 2030.
“The development of the Vostok refinery is just one of the challenges facing Rosneft and the Russian oil industry,“ said Viktor Kurilov, senior analyst in Rystad Energy's oil markets team.Attacks shrink oil refining
According to Bloomberg calculations, Ukraine has carried out at least 114 attacks on Russian oil refineries since the beginning of 2026. This is more than twice the number for the same period last year. The strikes are linked to a multi-year decline in refining, fuel shortages and restrictions on exports of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
„Rosneft“ operates 12 refineries, accounting for about a third of Russia's oil refining capacity. Among the hardest hit is the Ryazan refinery. The Syzran refinery has been shut down or operating at less than a third of its capacity for much of the past six months, and the Tuapse refinery has not been operating since April.
On October 10, Ukrainian drones struck an oil terminal at the Novoshakhtinsky refinery in Rostov-on-Don. A large fire broke out at the site. Satellite images show damage to at least eight of the terminal's 12 large tanks.
Sanctions make repairs more expensive
Repairs to the damaged facilities are being delayed and made more expensive by limited access to Western technology and equipment. The company uses Russian substitutes and Chinese components, the deliveries of which sometimes take months. Protective structures of containers, nets and steel cables have not proven effective enough against attacks by swarms of drones.
The war is also making it difficult for “Vostok Oil“. Foreign investors have withdrawn, and sanctions limit access to technologies for developing the fields and to specialized tankers for sailing in Arctic waters. The Omsk refinery was attacked in July, about 2,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, while the Arctic terminal is about 800 kilometers away. According to Bloomberg, this expansion of the scope creates additional risk for the project.
Profits are falling, and Moscow is subsidizing fuel
Rosneft“s net profit for the first half of 2026 fell by almost 20% to 200 billion rubles, or about $2.4 billion. Part of the pressure was offset by the rise in the price of Russian Urals oil, whose price for tax purposes has exceeded $90 per barrel. Russian authorities are simultaneously providing billions of rubles in subsidies to domestic fuel producers, including Rosneft.
On October 9, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump agreed to partially ease Russia's ban on diesel exports. However, the attempt for a broader energy truce has been blocked after Ukraine resumed strikes and accused Russia of continuing attacks on Ukrainian energy.
Sources: unian.net, bloomberg.com