Vladimir Putin sees victory for Russia where Donald Trump sees opportunity for a deal, writes CNN's chief international correspondent Matthew Chance. According to the analysis, it is this discrepancy that explains why the Trump administration's efforts to mediate to end the war in Ukraine are not yielding results.
Chance points out that if Trump were the president of Russia, he would probably agree to a quick and easy agreement to end the conflict. According to him, the American president could even claim that he can achieve this in 24 hours.
From Trump's point of view, such a deal would stop the death of thousands of "young, beautiful children", as he calls those dying on the front lines. At the same time, it would bring economic benefits to Moscow through the lifting of sanctions and subsequent trade agreements.
“That would mean peace and prosperity. But Trump is not the president of Russia. That is Vladimir Putin, and he has shown little interest in compromising on the stated goals of his war in Ukraine,“ Chance writes.
Discrepancy is evident in St. Petersburg
According to the analysis, the White House’s fundamental misunderstanding of Russian goals was again evident during the meeting between US envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin in St. Petersburg.
During the talks, Putin asked to learn the results of the previous day’s meetings in Norway. They were attended by representatives of the US, Europe and NATO, as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The aim was to discuss new possible peace proposals, including economic incentives for Moscow.
A senior Kremlin aide later confirmed that Witkoff had briefed the Russian president on the talks. But he then added:
“Frankly, there was little of value in them for resolving the Ukrainian crisis.“
This was an expected development, as Moscow continues to insist on its hard-line positions. These include control of all of Donbas in eastern Ukraine and participation in Kiev’s future security arrangements.
Economic incentives do not lead to retreat
The White House had expected the Kremlin to show greater willingness to compromise, especially after Trump lifted sanctions on Russian diesel exports. According to the analysis, the decision was dictated by domestic political considerations and the desire to lower fuel prices in the United States before the midterm elections.
For Moscow, however, this was a significant economic benefit. Trump later announced an energy truce that would limit Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. He also called for a change in the Ukrainian leadership.
“This was music to the Kremlin's ears“, the CNN analysis states.
According to Chance, these decisions were not perceived in Moscow as a sign that Russia should make concessions. On the contrary - the Kremlin viewed them as evidence that its strategy towards Washington was working.
During the meeting in St. Petersburg, Putin praised the decision on diesel fuel and suggested that Russia could increase exports of important fertilizers to the United States. He also mentioned other possible economic projects.
“We are also discussing various projects, such as data processing centers, energy projects and energy cooperation“, said Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian National Welfare Fund, after the three-hour talks.
The humanitarian gesture with an American citizen
According to the publication, the Kremlin is relying not only on economic proposals. The release of 74-year-old American citizen Stephen Hubbard before the St. Petersburg meeting was presented by Witkoff as a humanitarian gesture.
Hubbard was detained by Russia after being captured in Ukraine in 2022. During his four years in a Russian penal colony, he developed serious health problems, the analysis said.
In the White House, his release was ultimately presented as a sign of Trump's deal-making skills and Putin's respect for the American president. However, Chance argues that Moscow is using both economic promises and such humanitarian gestures to strengthen its own position in relations with the United States.
Sources: unian.net, edition.cnn.com