Russia is preparing operations under a foreign flag to destabilize Europe, after which Ukraine may be accused of what has been done. This is claimed by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
According to Ukrainian military intelligence, Moscow is intensifying its strategy towards the European Union in order to limit or completely stop external support for Ukraine. To achieve this goal, Russia may try to discredit Ukrainian security and defense forces and intimidate European governments and societies.
„Russia is intensifying its destabilization strategy towards the European Union with the aim of limiting or depriving Ukraine of external support by discrediting our country's security and defense forces, as well as by intimidating European governments and societies“, the GUR states.Ukrainian intelligence estimates that this may involve provocative sabotage actions in Central and Eastern Europe, including the Baltic states. The statement does not specify specific operations being prepared or dates for their implementation.
Possible targets are critical infrastructure and border areas
According to the GUR, Russian plans include various scenarios. Among them is the conduct of operations under a foreign flag, followed by accusations against Ukraine, spread through Russian propaganda channels and international platforms to which the Kremlin has access.
As possible places for provocations, critical infrastructure sites, territories bordering Russia, the Kaliningrad enclave and the Suwałki Corridor have been identified. Ukrainian intelligence also includes regions of EU countries with a Russian-speaking population in the list.
According to the GUR, sites controlled by the Kremlin, including a network of sites of the Russian Orthodox Church, could also play a potential role. These allegations are part of an assessment by Ukrainian military intelligence and are not presented as data on attacks that have already been carried out.
Warning of activity in the EU and NATO
On October 2, 2026, the GUR announced that Russian special services had been tasked with increasing their activity on the territory of the European Union and NATO countries. Then Ukrainian intelligence warned its partners about the preparation of hybrid operations aimed at weakening aid to Ukraine and the capabilities of the Alliance.
In its previous warning, the GUR indicated military facilities, critical infrastructure and communication systems as possible targets. Among the mentioned potential targets were also receiving stations for the satellite Internet “Starlink“, located in European countries.
At the moment, the Ukrainian side presents the information as an intelligence assessment and a warning to European partners. Publicly, the message does not contain data on a specific operation carried out, on detainees or on a confirmed incident related to the described scenarios.
Sources: ukrinform.ua