Serbia voted on October 25 for a new parliament, and the elections are shaping up to be the most serious test of Aleksandar Vucic's power since the beginning of the Serbian Progressive Party's rule. The vote is early, the parliament was dissolved on September 9, and the decision followed a proposal from the government.
The electoral list includes 18 lists that are competing for 250 seats in the National Assembly. The Republican Election Commission has determined 6,450,523 citizens with the right to vote. Regular party lists must pass the 3 percent threshold to participate in the distribution of mandates, while national minority formations are exempt from this requirement.
Duel between Vučić and the students
Formally, several political forces are participating in the elections, but the campaign has turned into a bipolar clash. On one side is the list “Alexander Vučić – United Serbia“, backed by the ruling bloc around the Serbian Progressive Party. On the other is the “Student List – Students Win“, formed with the support of the movement that has been organizing protests in the country for almost two years.
Vučić stepped down as president in September to head the election campaign and run for prime minister. He said he expected his list to win, but admitted the race was "difficult and uncertain." At a rally in Niš, Vučić accused students and their professors of acting on instructions from abroad. The student movement rejects such allegations.
The students are not presenting their campaign as a traditional party project. The list includes doctors, professors and other professionals, and among the leading names is cardiologist Ilija Srdanović. The candidates promise expert governance and changes aimed at the rule of law and accountability of institutions.
How the early vote came about
The protests began after the collapse of a canopy at the Novi Sad railway station on November 1, 2024. The incident killed 16 people. Students and citizens linked the tragedy to alleged irregularities and corruption in the station renovation and demanded the publication of documentation, criminal liability and resignations.
The demonstrations gradually grew into the longest-running challenge to Vucic's rule. Students blocked universities, organized marches from different parts of the country and in the last days before the vote gathered large crowds in Belgrade. At the final rally in the capital, participants chanted "Victory".
According to monitoring organizations, the campaign was marked by pressure on activists, significantly uneven media coverage and over 100 reported incidents of violence. International observers and the European Union expressed concerns about the fairness and security of the election process.
What the polls show
The data does not provide a clear favorite. A survey by the NSPM Institute, conducted between September 25 and October 5 among 1,050 people, gave the student list 44.5% against 42.7% for Vučić's list among those who decided to vote. Other estimates cited in pre-election analyses describe the result as extremely close.
A narrow margin could lead to difficult negotiations on forming a government and disputes over the election result. Vučić said the winner should be recognized, and the student movement called on its supporters to vote and monitor the polling stations.
The vote will not elect a president, as the presidential election is being held separately. However, the result will determine who will have the mandate to form a government and whether the current model of governance will continue or a new political cycle will begin in Serbia.
Sources: apnews.com, afp.com, bgnes.com