Democrats won full control of government in six US states following the November 3 midterm elections, and the result could change the way the United States elects its president. Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin now have a Democratic governor and a party majority in both chambers of their state legislatures, The Associated Press reported.
The six states have a total of 71 Electoral College votes. This result creates an opportunity to expand the existing plan for electing the president through a national popular vote.
How the system could change
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact has so far been adopted by 18 states and Washington, D.C. Together, they control 222 of the 270 Electoral College votes needed.
The compact provides that participating states will award their Electoral College votes to the candidate who wins the most votes nationwide, rather than to the winner only in the respective state. It will take effect once states with a total of at least 270 votes join it.
Minnesota joined the compact in 2023. If the other five states in which Democrats have established full control—Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—adopt the same measure, the total will reach 283 votes. That would be enough for the plan to take effect without amending the US Constitution.
Support from some governors
Wisconsin’s new governor, David Crowley, said he was ready to discuss the change with the state legislature.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro also supported the idea. “The national popular vote makes sense. My position has not changed,” he said, adding that he would work with lawmakers to choose an appropriate mechanism.
Support, however, is not guaranteed in every state. Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs has not said whether she would support joining the compact. In Nevada, a similar initiative has already faced obstacles. In 2019, then-Governor Steve Sisolak vetoed a bill approved by Democratic majorities in both chambers.
Political and legal disputes ahead
Lawmakers in the five states will begin working on the issue when their new sessions start. For now, it is unclear whether the national popular vote will be among their main priorities.
Conservative organizations have already objected to the idea. According to analysts from the America First Policy Institute, it deprives voters in participating states of their rights, violates the Constitution and undermines the intentions of the American founders.
The legal dispute could reach the US Supreme Court. University of Notre Dame law professor Derek Muller raises the question of whether such a compact requires approval from Congress. He also points to differences among state election ballots as a possible problem.
The debate intensified after the 2000 election, when George W. Bush won the presidency despite Al Gore receiving more votes nationwide. The same happened in 2016, when Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton. If the new state majorities adopt the compact, the next presidential campaign could be fought not only for a handful of swing states, but for every vote in the country.
Sources: apnews.com, axios.com