Alternative for Germany has 41 percent support in Saxony, more than twice the support of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which stands at 20 percent. This is shown by a new INSA poll commissioned by Bild. The gap between the two parties is 21 percentage points.
The poll was conducted online between November 3 and 10 among 1,000 adult residents of the state. The stated maximum margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. “This is a snapshot, not a forecast,” INSA notes regarding the nature of such polls.
From a CDU lead to a convincing result for AfD
The result shows a sharp shift compared with the state parliament elections in September 2024. At the time, the CDU won 31.9 percent and finished ahead of AfD, which received 30.6 percent. In the new poll, the Christian Democratic Union is down 11.9 percentage points from its election result, while AfD has increased its support by 10.4 points.
Behind the two leading parties are Die Linke with 9 percent, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance with 8 percent, the Social Democratic Party of Germany with 7 percent, and the Greens with 6 percent. Other parties account for a total of 9 percent.
Kretschmer remains stronger in a head-to-head contest
The data show a difference between support for the CDU and the personal approval rating of Saxony’s Minister-President Michael Kretschmer. In a hypothetical direct election for state leader, he receives 39 percent, compared with 17 percent for Jörg Urban, the leader of AfD in Saxony.
Kretschmer would also defeat AfD co-chairman Tino Chrupalla, but by a smaller margin – 42 percent to 30 percent. Thus, the poll outlines a difference between the assessment of the incumbent premier and voters’ intention to support his party.
Majority supports a government involving AfD
According to the study, 33 percent of respondents want a government led by AfD, while another 19 percent accept the party as a participant in government. A total of 52 percent support one of the two options. For the CDU, the corresponding figure is 45 percent.
The poll does not mean that immediate elections are due to take place in Saxony. The next regular state parliament election is expected in 2029, and the poll results reflect voters’ current attitudes rather than a certain future election outcome.
Sources: bild.de, t-online.de, focus.de