Vladimir Putin is relying on four scenarios to achieve victory over Ukraine, but two of them are already developing unfavorably for the Kremlin. According to The Wall Street Journal, Moscow expected the Ukrainian army to collapse or the administration of Donald Trump to force Kyiv to accept Russia’s terms. Neither has happened.
Ukraine continues to resist, while pressure from Washington has not led to an agreement to surrender territories that Russian forces have failed to seize. According to the publication, the early near-total suspension of American military and financial aid reduced the White House’s influence over the Ukrainian leadership.
Missiles and political divisions in Europe
The Kremlin’s two remaining scenarios involve a prolonged campaign of missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure, as well as weakening European support for Kyiv. Potential targets include power plants, warehouses, Black Sea grain ports and bridges across the Dnipro.
According to the analysis, the constant attacks could lead to shortages of electricity, heating and water and increase Ukraine’s dependence on European funding. On the front line, the Russian advance remains limited. Attempts to encircle Ukrainian defensive positions in the eastern part of Donetsk region have failed, while the Ukrainian army continues to fight despite a shortage of troops.
„Winter is usually the best time for a Russian offensive, but the Ukrainian drone presence along the front line is now so strong that only periods of bad weather allow the Russians to advance,“ says Konrad Muzyka, founder of Rochan Consulting.The Kremlin views Europe as Ukraine’s main ally, but also as a potential weak spot. Low economic growth, tensions surrounding social programs and high energy prices are affecting support for the ruling parties. At the same time, political formations opposed to aid for Kyiv are gaining popularity.
In France, Marine Le Pen promises to limit French and European funding for Ukraine. In Germany, „Alternative for Germany“ supports the resumption of large-scale purchases of Russian gas. In Italy, parties from both the ruling center-right coalition and the center-left opposition have spoken out against aid for Kyiv.
Moscow expects results in 2027
Hanna Notte, director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, says: „Spring is what the Russians will be waiting for. They want to see what this missile campaign will yield, as well as who will win the upcoming presidential election in France. Then they will take stock.“
According to the assessment, Russia may change its strategy, but not its fundamental goals. The Kremlin will likely wait until the beginning of 2027 before deciding whether to continue on the same course or adjust it.
Meanwhile, financial pressure on Moscow is increasing. Military spending already accounts for one-third or more of all government expenditure, while regional authorities are facing a shortage of funds and reducing payments to the families of fallen service members. „We are dealing with a very unstable system,“ says Alexandra Prokopenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
Sources: unian.net