Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal to conduct a humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region, may be pursuing not so much humanitarian as military objectives, Ukrainian experts warn. They point out that Moscow has already used ceasefires announced for the evacuation of civilians to improve its positions on the front.
On November 12, the Kremlin chief said that Kostiantynivka was under Russian control and proposed carrying out an operation there similar to the recent evacuation of people from Oleshky, Kherson region. According to Putin, civilians remained in the city, and clearing the approaches to it of mines would take five days and nights. He proposed that Ukraine’s and Russia’s ombudsmen, as well as representatives of the international press, be involved in the mission this time as well.
According to Ukrainian data, fighting for Kostiantynivka is continuing. Russia announced its capture as early as July, but provided no evidence. Analysts from the Deep State project emphasize that the city is under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but that the situation there is “extremely difficult.”
The Kremlin’s proposal was met with suspicion at the office of the Ukrainian president. “Given that they brought equipment into Oleshky and rotated troops under the cover of the humanitarian operation, it is clear what they want in Kostiantynivka. But all the details need to be clarified,” said presidential adviser Dmytro Lytvyn.
A humanitarian proposal as an instrument of pressure
Putin’s proposal came against the backdrop of contacts between the Russian leadership and American mediators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who are involved in negotiations on a possible end to Russia’s war against Ukraine. That is why the humanitarian initiative may also be part of a broader political game by the Kremlin, experts told DW. Moscow is demonstrating a readiness for agreements while simultaneously presenting its own version of what is happening on the front.
Ukrainian security expert Oleksandr Kovalenko draws attention to the contradiction in the Russian president’s statements. If the Russian army really controls Kostiantynivka, as Putin claims, it is unclear why it cannot independently organize the evacuation of civilians. “If they really have full control of the city, let them carry out the corresponding humanitarian operation.”
According to Kovalenko, the claim that the city is under Russian control does not correspond to the actual situation on the front. The expert believes that Moscow is using the humanitarian issue for manipulation and to strengthen its negotiating position. His assessment is that the Russian army needs time to replenish its units fighting for the city.
Kharkiv human rights defender Yevgeny Zakharov shares similar concerns. Speaking to DW, he noted that if Russia’s main goal really was to save civilians, such a proposal could have been made earlier. “I am afraid that the Russian proposal is pursuing objectives that are entirely different from those declared,” the human rights defender said, calling Putin’s initiative suspicious. According to Zakharov, the Ukrainian side should approach the Kremlin’s proposal with the utmost caution.
At the same time, Kyiv is in a difficult position because the idea is being advanced through American mediators. Military analyst Denys Popovych compares the situation to a choice between Scylla and Charybdis. “If we refuse, they will tell us: you do not accept peace proposals, you do not care about your own citizens. What are we supposed to discuss with you then—Zelensky clearly wants to continue the war. That is obviously how the calculations have been made,” the expert believes.
A ceasefire as a tactical military ploy
According to the experts, the main danger is that Russia is not using a ceasefire for the first time to improve its positions on the front. After the “silence regime” in Oleshky, the General Staff of the Ukrainian army reported that Russian troops had carried out a rotation, strengthened their positions, increased their anti-drone capabilities, and brought in ammunition.
“Now we are seeing the shelling of Kherson and the threat that the enemy may become significantly more active in the Kherson direction,” Popovych said. He also cited the example of the ceasefire announced by Putin for Easter in 2025, after which Russian troops continued their advance toward Pokrovsk in Donetsk region. “What happened once happened a second time, and it will happen a third time,” the analyst warns.
Oleksandr Kovalenko is convinced that the pause is needed by the Russians because they are gradually losing positions in Kostiantynivka. According to him, Ukrainian forces control the northern part of the city, the industrial zone, and the riverbanks, and are also carrying out counterattacks. The expert says that the Russian troops storming the city have long needed reinforcements, but cannot receive them because of the intensity of the fighting.
“If the so-called humanitarian mission is carried out in Kostiantynivka, it will be a catastrophe for us, because during that time Russia will save resources that will allow it to capture the city,” Kovalenko emphasizes.
Civilians trapped in the fighting
In the city, which had a pre-war population of around 70,000, the humanitarian situation is indeed critical. According to local authorities, around 340 civilians remain in the municipality. There is no central water, electricity, or gas supply, public transport is not operating, and since last spring evacuation has only been possible on foot.
“The people who have remained in Kostiantynivka need to be evacuated; they need a chance to live,” Popovych acknowledges. But without a ceasefire, they cannot be taken out, as Russian troops are nearby and the entire area is controlled by drones. That is why Ukraine cannot carry out the operation on its own—the evacuation requires action by both sides.
According to Oleksandr Pavlichenko, executive director of the Ukrainian Helsinki Human Rights Union, the current humanitarian mission requires an influential third party to oversee security during entry and exit—for example, the Red Cross.
What Kyiv should do
What can Kyiv do? Popovych advises against rejecting the proposal and recommends that, based on the experience of previous ceasefires, the conditions be defined very precisely. “If we cease fire, the soldiers who are now where they are must remain in the same place without moving,” he proposes.
Pavlichenko believes that Ukraine could make a counterproposal: Russian troops should leave the Ukrainian city and ensure that local residents can depart without hindrance. “No one should force Ukraine to make concessions regarding its military positions, even under the pretext of humanitarian missions,” the human rights defender is convinced.
The opinion of analysts from Deep State is that the best humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka would be the cessation of Russian attacks and shelling of the city. “All other attempts are hypocrisy, behind which Putin hides in order to take advantage of the situation for his own interests on the battlefield.”