Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are planning to meet on November 19 in the Chinese city of Shenzhen on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. The White House and the Kremlin have confirmed preparations for the talks, which would bring together the leaders of the United States, Russia and China in this format for the first time.
Despite the confirmed meeting, negotiations over the agenda and format are still ongoing. Reuters reports that the three countries have yet to reach a final agreement on which topics will be discussed and whether the conversation will be formal or informal. Expectations of a major agreement are low.
Different Goals Ahead of the Talks
Trump sees the meeting as an opportunity to begin discussions on controlling the nuclear arsenals of the three countries. A US official said Washington does not expect an agreement to be reached at this meeting, but believes China should take a more active part in the discussion.
The United States and Russia each possess more than 5,000 nuclear warheads, while China’s arsenal numbers around 500 warheads, according to data cited by Reuters. Beijing, however, is rapidly expanding its nuclear forces. The disparity in scale is one reason China has shown no interest in restrictions that would place it within the same framework as Washington and Moscow.
“The Chinese do not want arms control talks with the United States, and even less so with the United States and Russia, because that implies they accept being treated as a major nuclear power subject to similar restrictions,” said Edgard Kagan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.Moscow, for its part, sees the meeting as an opportunity to discuss the war in Ukraine and possibly an agreement that would meet Russia’s conditions. According to Reuters, China opposes including the issue on the official agenda. A US official said Trump would probably not raise the issue of Ukraine, as a trilateral discussion is not the appropriate format for it.
Fears of a “New Yalta”
Preparations for the meeting have already prompted comparisons with the 1945 Yalta Conference, when the United States, the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union negotiated key elements of the postwar order in Europe. In Russia, nationalist circles view the analogy as a sign that Moscow is once again among the powers determining the global rules.
Ukraine and other countries outside the format fear that the major powers could discuss their future without their participation. “We do not want this to turn into ‘Yalta 2, 3, 4,’ with influence being redistributed,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
China also has reason to proceed cautiously. Beijing will host the meeting, but it could overshadow the APEC forum and weaken China’s presentation of itself as a defender of multilateral cooperation and the interests of smaller countries.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said proposals for a possible agenda were being exchanged and that the meeting “will certainly be interesting.” For now, however, what has primarily been confirmed is that the talks will take place, rather than the specific decisions the three leaders may make.
Sources: reuters.com, apnews.com, investing.com