Experts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW ) evaluate the Sunday statements of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Sirsky about the retreat of Ukrainian forces from two settlements near Ocherino in the Donetsk region.
Syrsky admitted that the Russian army had a significant advantage in this area and the VSU should have withdrawn west of Berdichi and Semenovka. The two villages are located in the breakthrough zone of the Russian forces near Ocheretino, west of Avdeevka.
According to ISW, the Russian army has not been able to make a really quick advance in this area, and this shows that "Ukrainian forces are retaining positions and resources there that have so far slowed down the Russian advance in the western direction.
"Recent Russian advances northwest of Avdeyevka have forced Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other limited tactical positions on the front west of Avdeyevka, but this withdrawal has not yet led to rapid Russian tactical gains," the statement said. - It is still unlikely that Russian forces will be able to achieve a deeper operationally significant breakthrough in the near future."
Experts from the Institute for the Study of War believe that Russia "is likely to continue to achieve tactical successes in the Avdeyevka area, and the Ukrainian command may decide to continue retreating if Russian forces threaten other Ukrainian tactical positions.
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However, Ukrainian forces can use terrain features to slow down the Russian army, the bulletin said.
According to its authors, the Russian army has the opportunity to achieve operationally significant goals in the area of the city of Chasov Yar, but instead spends its forces on expanding and deepening the breakthrough near Ocheretino, where the achievement of such goals is much less realistic.< /p>
According to the experts, "Russian forces will probably have to replenish and reinforce the attacking units and reduce the pace of the advance west of Avdeyevka, unless they introduce additional reserves into the battle.
"This will very likely limit Russia's ability to make further rapid tactical progress in the region," the authors of the ISW summary report.