Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to recall well-known old threats to direct confrontation with the West. He said Russia would provide military assistance to unspecified countries for strikes against the West. The threat is intended to influence Western decision-making about the possibility of Ukraine striking military targets in Russia using weapons provided by its allies, but does not threaten escalation in Ukraine or through direct confrontation. This suggests that the Kremlin may be adjusting to selected Western perceptions of the credibility of such Russian threats.
Putin said during a meeting with foreign media executives on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 5 that Russia may begin supplying long-range weapons to unspecified Western adversaries as a "symmetric response".
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Russia is reportedly providing North Korea with ballistic missile technology in exchange for Russian artillery munitions, for example.
This is stated in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russian naval ships will arrive in port in Cuba between June 12 and 17, possibly as part of a larger effort against the US. The Cuban Ministry of Revolutionary Armed Forces announced on June 6 that four Russian ships of the Northern Fleet - the frigate "Admiral Gorshkov", the nuclear submarine with cruise missiles "Kazan", the oil replenishment ship "Akademik Pashin" and the rescue tug "Nikolai Chiker" - will make an official visit to the port of Havana from June 12 to 17.
"Reuters" reported that a senior US official said Russian ships may also stop in Venezuela at an unspecified date in the summer of 2024.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has said that Russia's goal is to ensure Russian naval presence in "operationally important areas of the far ocean zone". Russian media noted that "Admiral Gorshkov" carries "Zircon" hypersonic missiles, which the Kremlin portrays as capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. However, Cuba's Ministry of the Revolutionary Armed Forces explicitly stated that none of the ships carried nuclear weapons and "did not pose a threat to the region".
ISW cannot verify this Cuban claim. Such Russian naval visits to countries in the Western Hemisphere that have historically had strained relations with the US are intended to highlight Russia's strong relationship and are likely part of its control campaign.
Putin inadvertently suggested on June 5 that Russian forces may be losing 20,000 troops a month. If this is accurate, it is equal to or slightly below the number of new personnel that Russia reportedly generates per month. Putin inadvertently suggested that approximately 5,000 Russian servicemen are killed in combat in Ukraine each month, further suggesting that approximately 15,000 Russian servicemen are wounded in combat, assuming a standard three-to-one wounded-to-killed ratio.
ISW cannot confirm these figures, and the apparent inadvertent admission does not serve as a clear statement of Russian casualties in Ukraine. However, the number suggested by Putin is somewhat in line with Ukrainian reports of Russian casualties. Ukrainian ground forces commander Lt. Gen. Oleksandr Pavlyuk said on May 2 that Russian forces were losing about 25,000 to 30,000 personnel killed and wounded per month.
Deputy head of Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Major General Vadim Skibytsky, reported on January 15, 2024 that Russia is hiring about 30,000 personnel per month.
Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based Center for Strategic and Technological Analysis and a member of the civilian advisory board of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), similarly stated in mid-April 2024 that current Russian efforts to cryptomobilization generate approximately 30,000 new recruits every month.
Russian officials are reportedly worried ahead of an expected Russian offensive in the summer of 2024, and it is unclear whether the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) has maintained the level of around 30,000 it reportedly had in January and April 2024
Pavlyuk said in early May 2024 that Russian forces intended to raise about 100,000 more for operations in June and July and another 300,000 by the end of 2024.
Restrictions on partner F-16 fighter pilot training create obstacles that will affect Ukraine's ability to effectively use the F-16 in the future. Politico reported that Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium plan to send more than 60 F-16s to Ukraine in the summer of 2024.
Politico reported on June 5 that US, European and Ukrainian officials and lawmakers have said that US, Danish and Romanian F-16 pilot training facilities, however, can only train a limited number of Ukrainian pilots. Politico reported that US Air Force spokeswoman Laurel Falls said the US National Guard plans to train 12 Ukrainian pilots by the end of September 2024. The Danish training base is reportedly training eight Ukrainian pilots, but that base reportedly will close in November 2024, and the Romanian training facility is reportedly still defunct. A full squadron of 20 aircraft requires 40 pilots.
A former Defense Department official is reported to have said that if current training restrictions continue, Ukraine will only have enough pilots for a full squadron in late 2025. Ukraine will not be able to use all the aircraft provided by The West, as efficiently as possible, until the required number of Ukrainian pilots complete training.
Select Western nations have indicated that Ukraine will be allowed to use F-16s to strike Russia, but its ability to operate F-16s near the international border depends on Ukraine's ability to destroy Russian air defenses .
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 18 that Ukraine needs about 120-130 advanced fighter jets to achieve air parity with Russia, but that Russia's biggest advantage is Western-imposed restrictions barring Ukraine from used Western-supplied weapons to strike military targets in Russia.
Ukraine can set conditions for aviation to operate in the air to support Ukrainian ground operations if it is able to sufficiently destroy Russian air defense assets in Russia using Western weaponry, has trained pilots and a sufficient number of aircraft F -16.
French authorities are investigating numerous recent pro-Russian sabotage operations amid the ongoing hybrid war against NATO countries to undermine support for Ukraine. French media reported on June 5 and 6 that French authorities detained a pro-Russian man with dual Ukrainian-Russian citizenship at a hotel on the outskirts of Paris after the man suffered injuries from making explosives in his hotel room.
French authorities believe the man had been fighting with the Russian army for two years in an unspecified location (possibly in Ukraine) before this incident.
NBC reported that a source at France's National Anti-Terrorism Prosecutor's Office said it was "too early for us to say" whether the incident was linked to a Russian sabotage campaign, although French and other European intelligence agencies recently warned of a planned increase in Russian sabotage operations in the coming weeks.
French President Emmanuel Macron plans to meet with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky on June 7 in Paris, and "Reuters" reported that French officials may use the visit to announce the transfer of French military instructors to Ukraine.
French authorities are also investigating potential involvement of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) in recent incidents, possibly aimed at stoking domestic unrest and distrust of Macron.
The Russian Investigative Committee announced the arrest of a French citizen on June 6, following the arrest in France in early June. The Russian Investigative Committee announced and published footage of Russian authorities detaining an unspecified French citizen on charges of failing to provide the necessary documentation required by law for legally designated "foreign agents". The Russian investigative committee claimed in its report that the French citizen also spent "several years" in repeated trips to Russia, gathering information about the Russian military that "could be used against the security of the Russian state" if "foreign sources" obtain that information, essentially charging the person with espionage, but not yet formally charging him with espionage-related crimes.
Ukrainian forces hit an oil refinery in Rostov Oblast and an oil depot in Belgorod Oblast on the night of June 5-6. Rostov Oblast Governor Vasily Golubov admitted that the fire started at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery after a drone attack. Geolocated footage released on June 6 shows a fire at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Rostov Oblast. RFE/RL released satellite images on June 6 showing that the Ukrainian strike hit a liquefied hydrocarbon gas production facility. Radio "Freedom" reported that the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery has a capacity of five million tons per year, and a prominent Russian blogger claimed that the facility is primarily export-oriented. Ukrainian forces previously struck the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in June 2022 and March 2023.
Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said on June 6 that a Ukrainian drone strike caused a fire at an oil depot in Starooskolsky Gorodskoy Oblast. ISW has not seen visual confirmation of the reported Ukrainian strike on the oil depot in the Starooskol district.
Russian and Taliban officials have expressed interest in bilateral cooperation, indicating that Russia is likely to soon delist the Taliban as a banned organization in Russia. The Taliban's acting minister of labor and social relations, Abdul Umari, gave an interview to TASS in the Kremlin at the Petersburg Economic Forum (SPIEF) on June 6, in which he expressed interest in expanding economic and energy ties with Russia and said the Taliban looked forward to Russia's decision to exclude them from the list of banned organizations in Russia."
Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed support for delisting the Taliban on May 28, ahead of the Taliban delegation's visit to Russia.
Russian Secretary of the Security Council Sergei Shoigu said at a meeting with the secretaries of the Security Councils of the member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) that Russia is concerned about the situation in Afghanistan and claims that there are " ;new fighter training camps" and unspecified terrorists are moving from Syria and Iraq to Afghanistan.