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ISW: Putin Uses Common History for Future DPRK Benefits

The deliberate reference to history is for Putin to justify his future demands or demands of the North Korean people to support Russia's military efforts in Ukraine

Jun 19, 2024 07:25 158

ISW: Putin Uses Common History for Future DPRK Benefits  - 1

Russian President Vladimir Putin published an article in the North Korean state newspaper Rodong Sinmun, in which he praised Russian-North Korean cooperation ahead of his visit to North Korea, which is likely to outline any future support North Korea will provide to Russia as part of a general fight against the West.

Putin referred to history by noting that the Soviet Union was the first country to establish diplomatic relations with North Korea. Putin praised Kim Jong Un's dedication to his father and grandfather's legacy and praised Pyongyang as a "tough-minded" nation that stands with Russia in opposition to the collective West. Putin confirmed Russia's support for North Korea's fight against its enemy, the United States.

This is stated in an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Putin also hinted that Western countries are common enemies of Russia and North Korea. Russia, like North Korea, maintains its strong economy and independence despite Western sanctions.

He praised North Korea's long struggle against the West. Putin claims the West has rejected peace proposals from both leaders, even though both leaders appear opposed to serious, bona fide peace talks.

Putin expressed hope that their bilateral relations will continue to deepen. The deliberate reference to history is for Putin to justify his future demands or demands of the North Korean people in support of Russia's military efforts in Ukraine.

Putin's visit to North Korea is also an important goodwill gesture to Kim Jong Un, as the visit helps legitimize Kim's pariah regime - both at home and abroad. Foreign heads of state rarely visit North Korea, and Putin last visited North Korea in 2000. Putin may use this visit for additional assistance from North Korea in the future, for arms or manpower supplies. Reports in 2022 suggested that North Korea was considering sending workers to Russian-occupied Ukraine to help with reconstruction efforts.

Selected Western officials have warned of the dangers of greater cooperation. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on June 17 that Russia's growing rapprochement with its "authoritarian friends" makes "even more important" NATO countries to work with their partners in the Indo-Pacific region and condemned China and North Korea for their military support for Russia.

US national security spokesman John Kirby said during a press conference that the US is concerned about the deepening of Russian-North Korean relations - both because of the implications in Ukraine and because of the security of the Korean peninsula. Kirby said the US is closely monitoring developments.

Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil depots in Rostov Oblast and Krasnodar Krai on the night of June 17-18, using indigenously produced Neptune missiles against a ground target in Russia for the second time.

Ukrainian navy sources told Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne on June 18 that Ukrainian forces used Neptune anti-ship missiles, possibly modified to hit land targets, to hit an oil terminal in the port city of Chushka, Krasnodar Krai overnight.

Ukrainian forces have already carried out two strikes with their own Neptune missiles. against areas of Russian territory that are within range of US-provided ATACMS, but are also protected by US policy that has created a vast haven on Russian territory. The Ukrainian General Staff said on May 31 that Ukrainian forces had used Neptune missiles to strike an oil depot near the port of Kavkaz, Krasnodar Krai, and former Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian Naval Staff Andriy Ryzhenko said the May 31 strike was the first Ukrainian strike using Neptune against ground targets.

Chushka and Kavkaz are port cities near the Kerch Strait and are about 250 kilometers from the current front lines and within 300 kilometers of the US-provided long-range ATACMS.

The US has prevented Ukrainian forces from using existing US-supplied weapons to strike legitimate targets on Russian territory for most of the full-scale invasion so far, and still prohibits Ukraine from using ATACMS anywhere in Russia.

Ukraine first launched Neptune anti-ship missiles against Russian naval targets in April 2022 and had to further develop and modify those missiles to deliver deep strikes against Russian territory, a process that took more than two years, during which Russian forces in Russia enjoyed protection against Western -arms provided.

The Russian Investigative Committee ordered on June 17 the detention in absentia of a Ukrainian commander on charges that the commander helped shoot down a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft in February 2024 — a legal act of war and a normal occurrence for two warring states.

Previously, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs absurdly placed numerous officials from most NATO member countries on its western flank on Russia's wanted list for violating various Russian laws, while the officials were in their respective countries where Russian law has no jurisdiction.< /p>

Russian officials similarly temporarily placed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Lt. Gen. Oleksandr Pavlyuk, and former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on their wanted list for allegedly violating Russian law while those officials were not in Russia .

ISW continues to assess that Russia's decision to place Western officials on its list of wanted for violating Russian federal laws outside of Russia is part of its efforts to violate the sovereignty of NATO member states and justify possible future Russian aggression .

The Kremlin's prosecution of Ukrainian military personnel and political leadership who are engaged in a perfectly legal, defensive war against an invasion by a foreign power in a manner akin to domestic terrorists underscores Russia's enduring belief that the Ukrainian state does not exist and should not exist as a political entity separate from Russia.

The founder of the Kremlin-linked Rybar Telegram Channel, Mikhail Zvinchuk, gave his second uncharacteristic public interview in a month, in which he criticized the state of Russia's military effort in Ukraine and acknowledged that Western sanctions are negatively affecting industry and the economy of Russia. The Republika Srpska (Serbian region within Bosnia and Herzegovina) media portal BanjaLuka.net published an interview with Zvinčuk on June 18 to promote his recently established "Rybar Media School" in the Balkans.

He gave an unusually candid and critical look at the Russian military when asked to discuss the current state of Russia's war in Ukraine. Zvinchuk said the war did not proceed as the Russian military had planned, in part due to poor Russian planning. Russian forces have learned to fight at the platoon, company and battalion level, but still lack the ability to fight at higher echelons. Zvinchuk noted that Russian forces have "learned" to seize the initiative on the battlefield, but have done so only in selected undefined locations and that Russian forces are able to achieve only slow tactical successes. Zvinchuk claims that if Russia manages to seize the strategic initiative, Russian forces will capture "one city per week, not one house or village per week.

Russia does not have enough equipment to take the strategic initiative, but has acknowledged that Russia is trying to speed up production of its defense industrial base. Zvinchuk acknowledged that international sanctions against Russia have prevented it from maintaining its technological capabilities, noting that some Russian oil refineries are not operating, leading to a 10 percent increase in fuel prices. Zvinchuk gave an interview to diaspora-focused Russian-language RTVi on May 18 — shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov as Russia's defense minister — in which he criticized Russia's Ministry of Defense (MoD) and speculated about a possible changes in the MO.

ISW speculated that Zvinchuk may be trying to use his public interviews to gauge the Kremlin's response to critical voices, or that the Kremlin may have assigned Zvinchuk to publicly criticize the Russian Defense Ministry while dictating the content and severity of the statements his. The decision to give his second public interview in a month to a Republika Srpska media portal shows his interest in publicizing his efforts to spread pro-Russian disinformation in Europe and to support long-term Russian efforts to destabilize the mediated Dayton Agreement in Bosnia of the West and Herzegovina.