Videos of successful Ukrainian attacks against Russian tanks - with drones, mines and anti-tank missiles - are circulating on social networks. According to journalistic investigations using data from freely accessible sources, since the beginning of the war against Ukraine, Russia has lost more than 2,600 tanks. However, the actual losses may be even greater. This means that the Russians must have only a few hundred tanks left, as they had about 3,000 at the start of the war.
Russia has fewer tanks than at the beginning of the war
Russia also has other tanks in stock, some of which are old machines, 50 or 60 years old. Satellite images show, for example, hangars in Siberia where hundreds of tanks were stored until two years ago, but which have now been removed. Every month, Russia has been upgrading dozens of them for use on the battlefield. As a result of the transition to a wartime economy, Russia also increased the production of new tanks at several plants.
All these calculations are based on judgments based on information gathered from open sources. But they can also illustrate Russia's growing problems with the supply of military equipment to replace the one lost on the battlefields in Ukraine.
Russia itself has reported that it has 1,500 new or refurbished tanks. If we add them to the 400 or so that survived after 2 years of war, it turns out that Russia currently has about 1,900 combat-ready tanks. This is still an impressive number, but the machines are fewer than at the beginning of the full-scale aggression against Ukraine. Some analysts believe that Russia actually produces far fewer tanks than it claims.
Tanks are crucial for frontline breakthroughs
Moscow's losses are believed to exceed production. On this basis, observers cautiously assume that if Russia loses approximately 60 tanks per month, in another two years its stocks will decrease to the critical 1,000 tanks, which will no longer allow it to conquer new territories.
If the fighting escalates and Russia starts losing tanks even faster than it is now - for example because of better Ukrainian anti-tank defenses or insufficient new supplies - Russian stocks could run out even sooner.
Tanks may seem old-fashioned as a weapon system, but they're still critical to making breakthroughs on the front lines. If Russia loses too many tanks, it can only defend the existing front line, but cannot hope for new territorial gains. This would cause a stalemate on the battlefield after years of fierce fighting and many casualties.
Author: Ralph Martin