The war in Ukraine and the upcoming US presidential election were the main topics at the NATO summit in Washington this month, but out of the public eye, the alliance's military planning was focused on assessing the huge cost of fixing the appalling state of European defense, BTA writes, citing "Reuters".
NATO leaders agreed last year on plans to carry out the biggest overhaul of its defense capabilities in three decades amid growing fears of Russian aggression. Since then, working out of the public eye, government officials have concentrated on drawing up the defense program minimum to implement those plans, which an anonymous military planner said have been sent to governments in recent weeks.
The minimum requirements lay out in detail the shortcomings in NATO's armies in strategic areas, presenting a rough estimate of how many billions of euros it would cost to fix the problems, the source told Reuters. NATO intends to turn these requirements into mandatory targets for the governments of individual member countries, which must be achieved in Europe by the fall of 2025, when the regular meeting of the defense ministers of the alliance will take place.
Reuters spoke to 12 military and civilian officials from European countries about the secret plans, highlighting six areas where change has been identified by the 32-nation alliance as most urgent. The agency's conversations with NATO representatives show that it is a question of shortfalls in air defense and long-range missiles, in the number of troops, in ammunition, problems in logistics and a lack of security in digital communications on the battlefield. NATO has not publicly estimated the total cost of its plan.
What has been established so far shows the alliance has a tough job ahead of it to achieve its goals at a time when its unity could be tested by budget constraints in Europe's leading countries and by differences over how belligerent the stance should be against Russia.
A key moment is this year's US presidential election, around which fears are rising that at the head of NATO's remarkable power might stand a man critical of the alliance – former President Donald Trump accused his European partners of ready use of American military support.
At the July 9-11 summit in Washington, some European politicians publicly acknowledged that regardless of who wins the US elections in November, the Old Continent will have to increase its military spending. "We have to recognize that for America, whatever the outcome of the presidential election, the priority of the US is increasingly shifting to the Indo-Pacific region, so European NATO countries have to shoulder a greater burden,” said the British minister of defense John Healy on the sidelines of the summit.
In response to a Reuters question, a NATO official said alliance leaders had agreed in Washington that in many cases spending above 2 percent of gross domestic product would be needed to make up the shortfall. He noted that twenty-three member states have already met or exceeded the recommended minimum of 2%.
"Regardless of the outcome of the US elections, European allies will need to continue to increase their defense capabilities, the readiness of their forces and their stockpiles of ammunition,”, said the NATO representative.
NATO is at its highest level of alert since the Cold War, with more pessimistic representatives, including German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, warning that a Russian attack on the alliance's borders could occur within five years . While Russia's economy is already military-oriented, European governments may face resistance if they ask taxpayers for more money for defense spending, already worried about having to cut living costs to prepare for a war that seems to many a distant prospect.
"We can expect a backlash, especially if politicians try to explain the cuts in other areas with the increase in defense budgets," noted on July 12, "Eurointelligence" (Eurointelligence - note ed.), news and analysis agency for the EU.
TAKE THE BURDEN
The first major reform of NATO since the end of the Cold War will direct the alliance back to defending Europe from a possible Russian attack, years after missions in places as far away as Afghanistan.
Reuters has already reported that NATO planners say the alliance will need 35 to 50 additional brigades to withstand a Russian attack. A brigade consists of 3,000 to 7,000 servicemen, which would mean the need for about 105,000 to 350,000 more soldiers. This means that Germany will need 3 to 5 additional brigades, or 20,000 to 30,000 more fighters, in effect another division in addition to the three that Berlin is currently equipping. The German Ministry of Defense declined to comment on the subject.
Following the example of US representatives, many European politicians, including Healey, have already openly stated that military spending should exceed the current 2% of GDP set by the alliance.
Tuuli Dunton, deputy minister for defense policy at the Ministry of Defense of Estonia, whose government is one of the most bellicose against Russia, suggested during an online briefing on July 2 (before the forum in Washington) that her meeting summit next year for NATO to discuss raising the recommended spending floor to 2.5 or 3 percent.
By far the biggest contributor to NATO operations is the US. According to alliance estimates released in June, the U.S. will spend $967.7 billion on defense this year, roughly ten times more than Germany, the alliance's second-largest spender. Total NATO military spending for 2024 is estimated at $1.474 trillion.
Trump's decision this month to pick as his running mate Sen. J.D. Vance, who has opposed aid to Ukraine and called NATO partners "welfare reliant," has sparked concern in some European capitals.
Lt. Col. Charlie Dietz, a Pentagon spokesman, said the U.S. supported efforts by its European allies to raise military spending to at least the recommended 2 percent of GDP, and indicated that significant progress had already been made in increasing the budget. "NATO's plans for regional defense include increased readiness and flexibility across the alliance. We remain committed to substantially supporting these efforts," said Dietz.
According to the new defense plans, Germany will have to quadruple its air defense – not only the number of "Patriot" batteries, but also the shorter-range missiles – to protect bases, ports and most of the 100,000 troops expected to cross the country to the eastern flank in the event of serious tension or war, a security source told Reuters.
Germany had 36 Patriot systems in service when it was NATO's frontline country during the Cold War, and even then relied on support from the alliance's allies. Today, the German forces have only 9 Patriot systems, having donated three systems to Ukraine after the start of the Russian invasion in 2022, and need to significantly increase their number.
The cost will be significant. Berlin recently ordered four "Patriot" systems; at a cost of 1.35 billion euros.
Underlining the budgetary challenges already weighing on Europe's biggest economy, Germany intends to halve its military aid to Ukraine in 2025. However, Berlin hopes that Ukraine will be able to meet the bulk of its military needs with G7-approved $50 billion in loans from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets.
EUROPE MUST "SHOW ITS TEETH"
Logistics planners have been tasked with developing ways to transport food, fuel and water to troops along the supply line, a senior NATO official said, while another official indicated that it would have to be organized and the reverse flow of wounded soldiers and prisoners of war.
"Together with allies, they develop the maps in extremely detailed detail," the official said. According to him, they check whether, for example, bridges are strong enough to withstand heavy military loads.
Another military planning source outlined a scenario in which enemy forces could target the US military base in Ramstein, southwest Germany, or North Sea ports such as Bremerhaven, through which NATO forces would pass on their way to Poland.
"How do we protect these massive forces so they don't become valuable targets?" the source asks rhetorically. "Otherwise they will be the first and last Americans stationed there.
During the Cold War, tens of thousands of troops from NATO and the Soviet Union were stationed opposite each other along the inner-German border, but deploying troops will now take longer, as the frontline of a possible conflict is likely to be far away. to the east. This will take up to 60 days, including the time for a political decision, according to the first military planner.
Europe does not have enough rail capacity to transport tanks, and the distance between the tracks is different in Germany and the former Baltic Soviet republics, meaning weapons and equipment will have to be transhipped onto other trains.
NATO's top military planner says cyber defenses need to be strengthened to protect against hacking attacks that could affect potential deployments, such as in Poland, where rail infrastructure could be blocked, leading to until the movement of troops to the east is stopped.
This means that quick decision-making and a reliable checklist of possible problems are essential.
NATO planners have drawn up a list containing a double-digit number of early warning indicators of possible signs of an impending full-scale Russian invasion, NATO's top military planner told Reuters, without giving further details.
Europe will have to be prepared to "show its teeth" and move combat-ready troops directly to a potential frontline in response to Russian military maneuvers if necessary for deterrence, but at the same time must be ready for combat immediately if tensions escalate into war, the source connected to the development said of plans.