The Ukrainian attack on Russian soil surprised not only the Kremlin, but also the Western partners. It is doubtful that Kiev's accounts will turn out to be true, because the fighting at Kursk does not bring relief to the soldiers at the front, says an expert.
"Russia brought the war to our land and must feel what it has done," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his traditional evening video address. Zelensky did not specifically mention the advance of Ukrainian troops in the Russian region near Kursk, but many read the line as a reference to him. However, what goal are the Ukrainians pursuing in the bordering Russian territories? Military expert Franz-Stefan Gadi gives his explanation to ARD:
Good coordination and surprise attack
„For now, we can say that the attack differs from other attacks on Russian territory because it appears to be very well coordinated,”, Gadi said. The Ukrainian units combined various weapons and apparently managed to cause serious disruptions in Russian communication systems.
The attack was apparently planned for a long time and the plans were successfully kept secret. “Although there is repeated talk about the so-called transparent battlefield, where almost every movement of every vehicle and every soldier can be tracked precisely, it is still possible to achieve an element of surprise in this phase of warfare - both at the tactical and strategic level,” says the military expert. “Not only Russia, but also many military analysts in Western countries did not expect such progress.“ There are signals that even the US is surprised, he adds.
„Does Ukraine have enough ammunition?“
But how long will the Ukrainian offensive last and how far will it go? Gadi cannot answer definitively: “It depends on how quickly the Russian troops will be able to regroup and launch a counteroffensive”. The important question is how Ukraine plans to use the current situation. Because if he wants to keep the territory as a bargaining chip, it will provoke the use of glide bombs and other weapons with which the Russians will have the upper hand. “It is also about stockpiles: does Ukraine have enough ammunition, including for air and missile defense, enough additional artillery and armored vehicles? If one of these dominoes falls, it will be very difficult,”, Gadi sums up.
However, the analyst does not believe that the concentration of forces on Russian territory weakens other positions of Ukraine. “One of the expectations may be that the Ukrainian military leadership hopes to engage Russian reserves to be withdrawn from the contested parts of the Donbass. But this could hardly be done, because in the Kursk region the Russians have other military units that can be quickly mobilized and transferred there, he explains.
Is Ukraine's goal symbolic?
However, the entire Ukrainian operation may also have a purely symbolic purpose – to boost the morale of its own soldiers from the success achieved, as well as to signal to Western partners that “we too are capable of planning complex military operations and conducting them secretly,”, Gadi said. “And also to show Russia: We can bring the war to your territory as well, the force is with us”.
The expert believes that the most important countermeasure from the Russian point of view will be the deployment of additional forces on the front in Eastern Ukraine towards Pokrovsk. “And the biggest revenge for this move will be the strengthening of air attacks against Ukrainian critical infrastructure”.