Ukraine is betting that with a successful operation in Russia's Kursk region will be able to win better positions at the negotiating table with Vladimir Putin.
This is what Maxim Alyukov, a political sociologist from King's College London, told Business Insider. In his words, the Ukrainian invasion was a “bold step” aimed at sending a message that Kiev retains the ability to harm Russia in new and unexpected ways. But Ukraine will have to maintain momentum in order to seriously weaken Putin's power, Alyukov believes.
The expert points out that it is unclear how long Ukraine will be able to hold on to the territory it has seized in Russia if the Kremlin launches a large-scale operation to drive it out. Business Insider points out that Ukraine's invasion of Russian territory is a powerful blow to Putin's power. When Ukraine carried out the cross-border attack on the Kursk region, the Kremlin downplayed the invasion, calling it an attack by a “sabotage and intelligence group”.
It later turned out that the scales were much larger. Putin tried to reassure Russians that the situation was under control to avoid “significant internal discontent”. Such attacks could undermine Putin's prestige and power - and the Kremlin's confused response is a sign of its concern.
The attack apparently took Russian forces by surprise. The motives remain unclear. This led to sharp criticism of the Kremlin from ultra-nationalist military bloggers who wondered why the Russian military was so unprepared and criticized the chaotic efforts to evacuate civilians. Military analysts say Ukraine is seeking to deal an embarrassing blow to Putin by bringing the war home to ordinary Russians. Ukraine may also seek to move Russian troops from the front lines in Ukraine's Kharkiv region, which has seen heavy fighting in recent months.
The mutiny of Prigogine's private army “Wagner“ in 2023 exposed Putin's vulnerability. Then he was in shock – now he is also experiencing one. Putin's failure to protect Russia is dangerous to his image and environment, and this in turn could undermine the cohesion and unity of his inner circle.