EUvsDisinfo: The Kursk problem (original title: The Kursk problem)
Ukraine controls an area of 1,250 square kilometers (at the time of writing) inside Russia. Kiev wants to protect Ukraine from Russian attacks coming from that region. At first glance, this logic mirrors Putin's earlier claim that Russia wanted to create a “buffer zone” with Moscow's attempt to take control of the large Ukrainian city of Kharkiv and its surroundings in May of this year
But there is a difference: Putin's words were an attempt to cover up the fact that Moscow simply wants to conquer Ukraine and end it as an independent state, while the Ukrainian authorities are exercising their right to self-defense in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter and defend their country from Russia's aggressive war. Ukrainian strikes on military airfields and logistics points in Russia also constitute defensive action despite feverish Moscow's claims of “Ukrainian terrorism”.
Kursk: mixed messages
In recent days, we have continued to observe a rather diverse, even contradictory set of messages on the pro-Kremlin network, trying to explain what is happening. In the early days of the invasion, there was surprise, shock and disbelief. The Kremlin machine then swung into action in an effort to contain the sense of panic. Essentially, the following main narratives currently coexist:
- This is an existential threat. The Ukrainian offensive is a terrifying plan by the US, the West, NATO and others and is a serious threat to the very existence of the Russian Federation, which therefore deserves a nuclear response under the modern russian nuclear doctrine and strategy.
- We are threatened with a civilian nuclear disaster. In addition to the logic of the existential threat, there is an intense campaign running parallel, according to which the Ukrainians aim to strike the Kursk nuclear power plant and to cause a civilian nuclear disaster. Provoking fears of a second Chernobyl catastrophe is a classic Kremlin ploy. Moscow's constant and baseless accusations against Ukraine that it is planning reckless attacks against the Ukrainian nuclear power plant Zaporozhye, which is now occupied by Russian forces, are also such a trick.
- Don't worry. The Ukrainian operation is doomed to failure. It is a chaotic and desperate attempt to raise the low spirits of “neo-Nazis” (this is Kremlin slang for Ukrainian soldiers). In parallel, there is the claim that the offensive serves to divert attention from the political problems that Zelensky allegedly has. Moscow continues to push the narrative that Zelensky is not a legitimate president. According to a related claim, the West has already lost confidence in Zelensky and is preparing a change of leaders in Kyiv. This message is clearly intended to undermine public support for the war effort in Ukraine.
Which audience is the target audience?
There is a clear contradiction between the message that Russia is under existential threat and the “don't worry” message.
Don't worry. Everything is under control…
Russia's major state-run TV channels have one main role: they help consolidate Putin's regime and control society. They blew the “don't worry” and now show identical photos of the same burned pieces of Ukrainian equipment, and also demonstratively show small groups of captured Ukrainian soldiers. This echoes almost one-to-one the “Look: the enemy is losing!“ approach used to calm public sentiment in Russia after the humiliating retreat of Russian forces in the spring of 2022 from the Kiev region and later in the fall of 2022 . from the southern regions of Kherson, as well as from the region of eastern Kharkiv.
At the same time, Russian state media are promoting Putin's recent visit to Azerbaijan and are making efforts to create a sense of normalcy. Although Putin's visit to Baku was planned before the Kursk operation, here it seems to be a matter of diverting attention from a surprisingly embarrassing situation.
…But mobilize!
At the same time, we see a flood of doomsday messages for Russia – to create fear and incite action from other communities in Russia. Popular TV, radio and podcast host Vladimir Solovyov used messages of discontent, alternating strong criticism with praise of the Russian authorities. Similarly, the famous director, supporter of the war and staunch nationalist Karen Shakhnazarov warned, that the Russian authorities should proceed from the fact that it is possible for Russia to lose the military conflict with Ukraine. This happened in the TV show "Evening with Vladimir Solovyov". on the main channel “Rossiya 1”, in which Shakhnazarov criticized the elites for lack of internal mobilization, and the military leadership – for his poor performance in the Kursk region.
The Military Bloggers
People who spread such messages were joined by military bloggers – sometimes called “couch fighters“ with their often mild but sometimes strong criticism of mid-level commanders. Military bloggers are tolerated largely because of their role as a feedback loop and a pressure relief valve in a Russian military system that generally lacks reliable and fact-based coverage. Only a few bloggers have been reprimanded by the Russian authorities, while moderate members of the political opposition have been vilified, imprisoned or sent to labor camps.
Confusion
The problem with sending mixed messages is that most information flows intersect, and content jumps between state television, the blogosphere and social media communities. It is difficult to maintain separate narratives with conflicting messages: such a cocktail can end up confusing the audience. The failure to craft a coherent story with compelling narratives reveals the loopholes in the Kremlin's disinformation machine and the anxiety that pervades it.
The West's war against Russia
The Kursk offensive increased the intensity of what has become a classic Kremlin narrative that the West has started a war against Russia. We are already seeing incessant claims and angry accusations that the West is the real instigator and ideologist of the Kursk operation. The Russian state media and those close to the Kremlin do not miss an opportunity to instill the notion that either Western plans or weapons, ammunition and equipment are behind the attack. In addition, Moscow has been making constant efforts to undermine support among Western societies and governments for arms supplies to Kiev. This is accompanied by Moscow's rhetoric ruling out any talks with Kiev after the Kursk offensive – not that the Kremlin has ever been a real advocate for peace.
EUvsDisinfo/ translation: Representation of the European Commission in Bulgaria