Currently, Russian forces are taking two immediate tactical actions as part of their ongoing offensive operation to capture Pokrovsk. The Russian military command probably sees both as prerequisites for launching an increased offensive effort against Pokrovsk itself.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Sirsky stated on August 29 that the most intense fighting in the Pokrovsk direction is taking place on the eastern outskirts of Pokrovsk.
This is stated in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
ISW has observed Russian advances in these areas in recent days. But Russian bloggers claim that Russian forces have made more significant tactical gains in the direction of Pokrovsk than observed visually confirmed evidence currently indicates.
Russian bloggers claim that Russian forces have advanced to the southeastern outskirts of Mirnograd (immediately east of Pokrovsk) and have engaged in small-arms fighting with Ukrainian forces in the city, although a Ukrainian military observer described Russian forces operating in the city as sabotage and intelligence groups.
Russian bloggers claim that Russian forces have advanced into much of eastern Selidove and have reached the center of the city.
They also claim that Russian forces are fighting in the northeastern outskirts of Ukrainsk (southeast of Pokrovsk), have captured Memrik (immediately northeast of Ukrainsk) and entered Khalytsynovka (immediately east of Ukrainsk).
Russian forces are likely hoping that the advance will aid ongoing offensive operations west of the city of Donetsk and that it will force Ukraine to withdraw from limited positions in rural open areas east of Ukrainsk and Girnik. The area north of Krasnogorovka (west of the city of Donetsk) consists mainly of open fields with limited cover or the cover of relatively few windbreaks, and Russian progress through this terrain is likely to require significant successful mechanized attacks, which Russian forces routinely struggle to deliver.< /p>
The Russian military command likely aims to achieve both of these tactical efforts before beginning the more resource-intensive effort to capture Pokrovsk itself, although Russian forces may begin an urban battle in Pokrovsk regardless if progress in these preparatory efforts stop.
It remains unclear whether the Russian military command intended for Russian forces to force their way entirely through Pokrovsk in a frontal urban battle, as they did through the smaller towns east and southeast of Pokrovsk, or whether they were seeking to encircle or encircle the city, as Russian forces tried before and failed to do against Bakhmut and Avdeevka.
The judgment of the Russian military command will likely depend on where Ukrainian forces decide to mount a significant defensive effort. However, ISW will not speculate or predict future Ukrainian defense efforts.
Russian authorities are creating new volunteer units for territorial defense in response to the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region. This underscored Russian President Vladimir Putin's reluctance to more seriously counter the invasion with mobilization because of the risks of public discontent, or with large-scale redeployments because of possible disruption of Russia's ongoing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine.
The Acting Governor of the Kursk Region Alexey Smirnov publicly announced on August 29 the creation of the volunteer unit "BARS-Kursk" and stated that the primary function of the detachment would be to "provide security" in Kursk Oblast during the invasion and resettlement of border settlements in Kursk Oblast at an unspecified later date.
Smirnov said the unit will cooperate with the Russian military and counter-terrorism operations headquarters, which are overseeing the ongoing Russian response in Kursk Oblast, and will also provide humanitarian support to residents of border villages. Smirnov said the volunteers will sign six-month contracts, undergo training and receive any "necessary" a weapon to fulfill his duties. The employees of the Kursk region published an announcement for the recruitment of personnel in the detachment on August 24.
Putin has consistently relied on volunteer and irregular formations to ease Russian manpower constraints during the war and has avoided calling for mobilization, deeply unpopular with Russian society.
The Ukrainian General Staff said on August 29 that a Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet recently crashed while defending against a large-scale Russian drone and missile strike.
An unnamed US official told Western media on August 29 that the plane crashed on August 26 and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has appointed a special commission to determine the cause of the crash.
The loss of equipment and aircraft during combat operations is not particularly new, and Ukraine is expected to lose some military equipment provided by the West during combat. However, any loss among Ukraine's already limited allocation of Western-provided F-16s and trained pilots would have a huge impact on Ukraine's fledgling ability to operate the F-16 in the near future as part of its combined air defense umbrella or in air support role of land.
Russian authorities arrested and charged former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Army General Pavel Popov with massive fraud on August 29. The Russian Investigative Committee accused Popov of embezzling money intended for the maintenance of the Patriotic Park of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), a Russian military exhibition in Moscow.
Russian authorities did not disclose how much money Popov is suspected of embezzling personally, but noted that his case is related to the large-scale fraud cases of the head of the Patriot park. Vyacheslav Akhmedov and the deputy head of the Directorate for Innovation Development of the MoD Major General Vladimir Shesterov, whom the Russian authorities arrested on August 5 for embezzling more than 40 million rubles (approximately $471,000).
Russian state media TASS reported, citing Russian law enforcement sources, that Akhmedov had testified against Popov.
A Russian source, who previously correctly preemptively reported several changes in command in the Russian Defense Ministry, estimated on August 5 that Popov could be the next high-ranking Defense Ministry official to be arrested.
Russian sources have previously theorized that the arrests of high-ranking MoD officials who served under former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu may be part of a "cleansing" of Shoigu-related inside the Ministry of Defense, which, according to the sources, indicates that Shoigu's influence in the Ministry of Defense of the Kremlin may be declining.