Ukraine is facing its darkest hour and hard times await, writes the Financial Times.
President Volodymyr Zelensky returned empty-handed from the US and now faces difficult challenges: Russia's progress on the front, a depleted society and the threat of a harsh winter.
Many Ukrainian front-line military personnel are increasingly willing to negotiate with Russia. A military commander who spoke to the FT said: “I am now for negotiations”. He worries that his son, also a soldier, may spend his life in war, and his grandson will inherit endless conflicts.
Another officer from the 72nd mechanized brigade in Kurahovo warns: “If the US turns off the faucet, we are finished”. This reflects concerns about Ukraine's dependence on Western support.
According to the Chairman of the Foreign Policy Committee of the Verkhovna Rada, Oleksandr Merezhko, “society is exhausted”. He noted the growing pressure on President Zelensky from Western partners to start negotiations - despite doubts about Russia's willingness to take such steps.
There are growing concerns that a potential Donald Trump victory in the upcoming US presidential election could force Ukraine into an unfavorable peace deal under threat of cutting off military and financial aid. As a senior Ukrainian official notes, “most players want de-escalation”.
Ukraine's most ardent supporters in Europe may want to continue their fight, but they have no weapons to do so and no plans to fill the void left by the United States.
Entering the vortex of the US election campaign, Zelensky held separate conversations with President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and her Republican opponent Trump. At one point, Zelensky's mission to the US could turn into a disaster after Trump criticized him for resisting peace talks.
The Ukrainian leader returned from Washington empty-handed on two main issues: permission from the United States for Ukrainian forces to use Western weapons for long-range strikes on Russian territory; and progress on Ukraine's bid to join NATO. The Biden administration has resisted both, fearing it could encourage Moscow to escalate the conflict, potentially involving the United States and other allies.
The true meaning of "the plan to win" is that he is shifting Ukraine's military goals from total liberation to tilting the war in Kiev's favor, a senior Ukrainian official says. “This is an attempt to change the trajectory of the war and bring Russia to the negotiating table. Zelensky really believes in this.“
Several European diplomats who attended the UN General Assembly in New York last week said there had been a marked shift in the tone and content of discussions around a potential deal. They note a greater openness among Ukrainian officials to discuss the possibility of agreeing to a ceasefire even if Russian troops remain on their territory.
Ukraine faces new challenges, in particular a difficult winter, threat of attacks on the energy sector, mobilization and unclear prospects for NATO membership.