Russian forces lack available human and material resources , to continue the intensified offensive indefinitely, and the current Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine are likely to end in the coming months, if not weeks. This is stated in a new report by the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (IIV), Ukrinform reported, BTA reported.
The report notes that Russian forces have recently achieved significant tactical successes, but have not demonstrated the ability to capture operationally significant targets. IIV distinguishes between tactical successes that are relevant at the tactical level of war near the areas of combat, and operational successes that are significant at the operational level and affect large sectors of the entire front line.
IIV analysts believe that the capture of Ugledar by Russian forces alone will not radically change the operational situation in the western part of Donetsk Oblast, and Russian forces will likely struggle to achieve their operational objectives in the area during the ongoing offensive operation in the western part of the Donetsk region.
"Russian offensive operations pursuing operationally significant objectives, such as efforts to capture Chasov Yar or to push Ukrainian forces off the left (east) bank of the Oskil River, are either at a standstill or making incremental gains. for long periods of time”, the report says.
According to the analysts of the IIV, the Russian military command was preparing the currently ongoing offensive operation "Russian Summer 2024" months in advance and has accumulated operational reserves and resources for the operation, which in the last months of offensive fighting have probably been severely depleted.
Russian forces reportedly aimed to create a new task force grouping of forces with uncommitted operational reserves of up to 70,000 for the offensive operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast in May 2024, while also creating operational reserves for the offensive of The central grouping of forces to Pokrovsk this summer. Russian forces likely used up a large part of these reserves due to the delay in the offensive operation in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, the increased pace of advance in the direction of Pokrovsk and in the western part of Donetsk Oblast, and the response to the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast.< /p>
Russian forces also continue to suffer heavy losses of armored vehicles in large, unsuccessful attacks across the front line, particularly in the western part of Donetsk Oblast. IIV predicts that Russian forces are likely to have amassed a large amount of equipment for such attacks, but significant medium- and long-term limitations on Russia's stockpile of armored vehicles will become increasingly significant as losses mount and may force the Russian military command to reconsider the benefit of continuing of such increased mechanized activity in Ukraine. Continued heavy Russian losses in Donetsk Oblast and further Russian redeployment to Kursk Oblast will weaken Russia's ability to sustain offensive operations in northeastern and eastern Ukraine, although it is more likely that Russian forces will continue to scale back offensive activity in lower priority areas sectors of the front rather than doing it evenly along the entire front line.
According to the IIA report, the current Russian offensive operation in the summer of 2024 is "likely to reach its climax in the coming weeks and months", but Russian forces may nevertheless continue to conduct offensive operations at a much lower pace in across Ukraine in the hope that consistent offensive pressure will prevent Ukrainian forces from building up the manpower and resources necessary to contest the theater-wide initiative.