Over 200 million people are eligible to vote on the US presidential election in November. However, the outcome of them will probably depend on the votes of only a few tens of thousands of people living in 7 states, in which the race will be extremely contested, notes AFP.
WHAT ARE HESITATING STATES AND WHY ARE THEY IMPORTANT
Unlike states where the victory of the Democrats (for example, California and New York) or the Republicans (for example, Alabama and Wyoming) is certain, in these seven states voters do not express strong support for either party. These are called "wavering states".
The classification of "wavering states" is not official, and sociologists do not agree on which states are most important to candidates in each race. But generally speaking, these are states where both major parties enjoy similar support among voters — Democrats and Republicans are within a few percentage points of each other in polls.
Swing states are important because almost all states use a winner-takes-all system. And even if one candidate wins them with a minimal lead, he gets the votes of all the delegates from that state in the Electoral College. It is the body that ultimately determines the winner of the presidential election by representing each of the states in a vote. Only in Maine and Nebraska of all 50 US states are votes distributed on a more proportional basis, with two delegates instructed to vote for the state winner and the rest to vote according to the outcome in each congressional district. In 2016, Hillary Clinton became an example of how winning more votes than the other candidate nationally does not mean winning the election.
Here are the states in which Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are focusing their campaign efforts:
PENNSYLVANIA
This is perhaps the most desirable state to win in these elections, notes AFP. Trump and Biden won there by narrow margins in 2016 and 2020, respectively. Many working-class people in this northeastern industrialized state abandoned the Democrats and supported Trump. But Kamala Harris is counting on major job-creating infrastructure projects launched by Joe Biden and union support to win it back. Major cities such as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are leaning toward the vice president and the Democratic nominee for the White House. Her opponent from the Republican Party and former US president relies on voters from small towns, according to sociological surveys.
Winning Pennsylvania, which has voted Democratic in every presidential race since 1992 but one, would be a big win for Republicans in 2024. The state is not only the focus of the Biden administration's economic policies, called "bidonomics" but it also contains the city of Scranton, the president's birthplace.
According to a sociological survey of the institute "RealClearPolitics" as of October 1, the two candidates have exactly the same support in this state - 48.2 percent.
MICHIGAN
Like Pennsylvania, this Democratic bastion voted in 2016 to a general surprise for Donald Trump rather than Hillary Clinton. In this cradle of the auto industry, also in decline, Kamala Harris received the important support of the major union in this sector, the UAW, but not that of Arabs and Muslims outraged by American support for Israel's military campaign in the Gaza Strip, noted AFP. There, Donald Trump is banking on the theme of the high cost of living to rally the middle class against Harris and portraying her opponent as the successor to Biden's inflation-marked tenure.
According to the same poll, Harris has the lead here with 48.3 percent to 47.6 percent for Trump.
WISCONSIN
Along with Pennsylvania and Michigan, it is the third state to break the "blue wall" in 2016. - the bloc of about 20 states considered staunch Democratic supporters. Hillary Clinton lost those voters, Joe Biden won them back in 2020. The Republican Party is holding its big convention there in July, a sign of how important this state is to them. The Democratic Party is trying to convince moderate voters by presenting Trump as an "existential threat to democracy".
Here again, Harris has a slim lead with 49 percent of voting intentions to Trump's 48.2 percent.
GEORGIA
In the heart of the conservative South, Georgia has traditionally voted Republican. But amid major anti-racist movements, this state with a large African-American community preferred Democrat Biden 4 years ago.
Kamala Harris, who could become the first black woman to lead the country, is hoping for the vote of young people and minorities in Atlanta. But many devout voters in that state are praising Trump as the man behind the repeal of federal abortion rights. It's a success that overshadows in their eyes his accusation of trying to rig the 2020 election results.
Here, Trump leads with 49.3 percent over Harris, who has 47.8 percent according to the same poll.
NORTH CAROLINA
Another southern state that hasn't voted Democratic since Barack Obama's first term, but elected a Democrat as governor in 2017. Just like in Georgia, Kamala Harris is counting on African Americans and youth. Democrats will work to increase voter registration and voter turnout.
According to the data of the institute "RealClearPolitics" as of Oct. 1, Trump leads 49 percent to Harris' 48.6 percent.
ARIZONA
This state, which traditionally votes Republican, sprung a surprise in 2020, electing Biden by just 10,457 votes. Biden's victory in Arizona was a surprise to some observers, as the state has voted for Democrats only once since 1976, the British newspaper "Telegraph" noted.
The state voted for Trump in the 2016 election and has consistently voted for the Republican nominee even in elections he didn't win nationally, including in 2008 and 2012.
Illegal immigration is a topic that Donald Trump is pushing hard in this state bordering Mexico, to the detriment of Kamala Harris. The hope for her is that at the end of 2022, voters there rejected an openly Trumpist candidate for governor and elected a Democrat.
According to "RealClearPolitics" 48.3 percent of voters here would vote for Trump, and 47.5 for Harris.
NEVADA
It is the smallest of the "wavering states" as a population. The state known for its Las Vegas casinos has not voted for a Republican since 2004, when George W. Bush was the candidate. Conservatives think they can win it back, thanks to Latinos, some of whom are breaking away from the Democrats' orbit. Democrats are counting on the young and educated people who come from neighboring California to work in technology and the energy transition, notes AFP.
Harris leads 48.6 percent to Trump's 47.5 percent, according to the Oct. 1 poll.