Gulf states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran's oil sites, as they fear their own oil facilities could come under fire from proxies of Tehran if the conflict escalates, sources in the Persian Gulf told Reuters.
As part of their attempts to avoid crossfire, the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, also refuse to allow Israel to fly over their airspace for any attack on Iran and have conveyed this to Washington, the three sources close to government circles shared.
Israel vowed Iran would pay for its missile attack last week, while Tehran said any retaliation would be met with massive destruction, raising fears of a wider war in the region that could engulf the United States.
The moves by the Gulf states come after a diplomatic push by Iran to persuade its Sunni Gulf neighbors to use their influence in Washington amid growing concerns that Israel could target Iran's oil facilities.< /p>
During meetings this week, Iran warned Saudi Arabia that it could not guarantee the safety of the kingdom's oil facilities in the Persian Gulf if Israel received any help in carrying out an attack, Reuters was told. senior Iranian official and Iranian diplomat.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the Saudi royal court, said: "The Iranians said, "If the Gulf states open their airspace to Israel, it would be an act of war.
The diplomat said Tehran sent a clear message to Riyadh that its allies in countries like Iraq or Yemen could respond if there was any regional support for Israel against Iran.
A potential Israeli strike was the focus of talks on Wednesday between Saudi de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who was on a Gulf tour to drum up support, Gulf sources said and Iran.
The Iranian minister's visit, along with Saudi-US communications at the defense ministry level, are part of a coordinated effort to address the crisis, another Gulf source close to government circles said.
A person in Washington familiar with the discussions confirmed that Gulf officials have contacted US counterparts to express concern about the potential scope of Israel's expected retaliation.
The White House declined to comment when asked whether the Gulf governments had asked Washington to ensure Israel's response was measured. US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on Wednesday about Israeli retaliation in a conversation that both sides described as positive.
Jonathan Panikoff, former US deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East and now at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, said: "Gulf states' concerns are likely to be a key topic of conversation with Israeli counterparts in their attempts to persuade Israel to mount a carefully calibrated response."
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, which is de facto led by Saudi Arabia, has enough spare oil capacity to offset any loss of supply from Iran if Israeli retaliation knocks out some of the country's facilities.
But much of this spare capacity is in the Persian Gulf region, so if oil facilities in Saudi Arabia or the UAE, for example, were also attacked, the world could face an oil supply problem.
Saudi Arabia has been wary of an Iranian strike on its oil facilities since a 2019 attack on its Aramco oil field shut down more than 5 percent of global oil supplies. Iran has denied involvement.
Riyadh has drawn closer to Tehran in recent years, but trust remains an issue. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE host US military installations or troops.
Concerns about oil facilities and the potential for wider regional conflict have also been central to talks between UAE officials and their American counterparts, another Gulf source said.
In 2022, the Iran-linked Houthis in Yemen fired missiles and drones at oil tankers near an oil refinery owned by the UAE's state oil firm ADNOC and claimed responsibility for the attack.
"Gulf countries do not allow Israel to use their airspace. They will not allow Israeli missiles to pass through them and there is hope that they will not hit the oil facilities," the Gulf source said.
The three Gulf sources stressed that Israel could launch strikes through Jordan or Iraq, but using Saudi, UAE or Qatari airspace was not discussed and strategically unnecessary.
Analysts also pointed out that Israel has other options, including mid-air refueling capabilities that would allow its planes to fly down the Red Sea into the Indian Ocean, continue to the Persian Gulf and then fly back .
Israel will calibrate its response, according to two senior Israeli officials, and as of Wednesday had not yet decided whether to strike Iran's oil fields.
The option is one of a number presented by defense officials to Israeli leaders, according to officials.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said on Wednesday: "Our strike will be deadly, precise and, above all, surprising. They will not understand what happened and how it happened. They will see the results."
The three Gulf sources said Saudi Arabia, as a leading oil exporter, along with its oil-producing neighbors - the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain - is keenly interested in de-escalating the situation.
"We will be in the middle of a missile war. "There is serious concern, especially if the Israeli strike targets Iran's oil facilities," a second Gulf source said.
The three Gulf sources said an Israeli strike on Iran's oil infrastructure would have a global impact, particularly for China - Iran's biggest oil customer - as well as for Kamala Harris ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election, in which she is running against Donald Trump.
"If oil prices rise to $120 a barrel, it will hurt both the US economy and Harris' election chances. So they (the Americans) will not allow the oil war to expand,'' the first Gulf source said.
Gulf sources said protecting all oil installations remained a challenge despite the presence of advanced Patriot anti-missile and defense systems, so the main approach remained diplomatic: signaling to Iran that the Gulf states were not a threat.
Bernard Haikel, a professor of Middle Eastern studies at Princeton University, noted that Riyadh is vulnerable "because the Iranians can take over these installations given the short distance from the mainland.