Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia signed a new security agreement last week. It marked the emergence of a new alliance in the Horn of Africa, a troubled region in the north-east of the continent with a strategic location close to Saudi Arabia and Yemen, which are across the Red Sea.
The deal apparently deepens Ethiopia's isolation and raises the risks of conflict, analysts quoted by AFP warn.
"Observers will find it hard to see in the new security cooperation agreement anything other than an anti-Ethiopian alliance,", commented Andrew Smith of the economic research company "Verisk Maplecroft" (Verisk Maplecroft).
However, the United Arab Emirates-based publication "National" wrote last week that the presidents of Egypt and Somalia are visiting Eritrea amid heightened tensions with Ethiopia.
Somalia-Ethiopia relations, which have been historically troubled, have further deteriorated since Addis Ababa announced on New Year's Day that it had signed a security protocol with Somaliland. The agreement with the Somali separatist region was condemned by Mogadishu as an aggression against the country's national security.
The agreement provides for Ethiopia - Africa's second-largest landlocked country - to receive for a period of 50 years 20 kilometers of the Somaliland coast, an area that declared independence from Somalia in 1991. Since then, Somalia has moved closer to Egypt - another country that borders Ethiopia and has disputes with it. The occasion is the construction by Addis Ababa of a giant hydroelectric plant on the Nile River, which, according to Cairo, will deprive it of such valuable water resources in the dry Horn of Africa.
In parallel, relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which broke away from its big neighbor after a bloody war in the 1990s, have soured further in recent times, although Asmara has lent support to Addis Ababa in the 2020 conflict -2022 with the Tigrean rebels - a sworn enemy of both otherwise hostile governments.
The Eritrean armed forces, however, are accused of atrocities in the Ethiopian state of Tigray.
And so, after an unprecedented meeting in the Eritrean capital of Asmara, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia agreed on Thursday to strengthen their relationship to enhance regional stability.
"History is repeating itself, as the Horn of Africa is once again divided into warring zones, with different external backers,", summed up the chief analyst for East Africa at the International Crisis Group, Omar Mahmoud, quoted by AFP.
Andrew Smith described the agreement as "an expected turnaround" in the regional equation, but "nevertheless no less remarkable".
The first years of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's rule were marked by improving relations between Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia, he recalls, noting the sharp turn in Somalia's position, which has retreated from Addis Ababa in favor of the most its great regional rival Cairo.
"This agreement effectively closes the door on Ethiopia's maritime ambitions," the analyst explains. He notes that this is more of a "diplomatic demonstration than a "military confrontation", but nevertheless warns that "suspicions are high and communication is weak", which carries risks in the event of a misunderstanding.
However, Ethiopia remains silent on the Asmara Treaty.
"The new union will annoy (her), but it won't surprise her," Smith commented.
However, the Ethiopian prime minister warned last month that his country "will humiliate anyone who dares to threaten it". Abiy Ahmed did not mention specific countries. However, Addis Ababa has already accused "anonymous factors" of trying to "destabilize the region" after Egypt delivered military equipment to Somalia in accordance with a bilateral agreement reached.
Meanwhile, a group of countries along the Nile, including Ethiopia, announced yesterday, quoted by the Associated Press, that a treaty on the equitable distribution of the basin's water resources had entered into force despite strong opposition from Egypt as well as neighboring Sudan. AP predicts that as a result this agreement will also cause controversy.
According to Andrew Smith, the Asmara agreement creates further uncertainty for the future of the African Union mission in Somalia to fight the Islamist group al-Shabaab. Ethiopia plays a key role in the operation.
"The potential deployment of Egyptian troops, and now Eritrean ones, means it is increasingly likely that Somalia will pressure Ethiopia to withdraw at the end of the year," the analyst notes, but adds that "the key question" ; is whether she will actually comply with such a request.
Omar Mahmoud draws attention to another point: the Asmara agreement complicates Turkey's mediation role between Ethiopia and Somalia.
Ethiopia is likely to feel threatened after the new treaty is concluded. This portends higher tensions and attempts to redistribute power in the Horn of Africa. As a result, against the background of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, it will become another region where stability is undermined. And this is extremely dangerous, even more so at a time when a bloody internal conflict has been raging in Sudan for a year and a half.