ISW: Moscow increases use of equipment in Donbass until winter

Russian forces continue to increase the use of mechanized equipment in the western part of Donetsk Oblast amid reports of the beginning of the autumn riots. They want to facilitate the advance through open fields before the onset of rainy weather. This is noted by commentators from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), quoted by RBK-Ukraine and FOCUS.

Russian forces have recently increased the use of armored personnel carriers and tanks in attacks along the Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo axes.

The ISW recorded three battalion-sized mechanized attacks in the West Donetsk region in the past week alone. This is a significant increase in pace, as the Russians carried out a total of four such attacks between late July and early October 2024.

Russian and Ukrainian sources have recently reported worsening conditions along the entire front line in Ukraine. The impending onset of muddy conditions is likely to prompt Russian military commanders to step up mechanized offensive operations, according to ISW.

Commentators believe that Russian military commanders may intend to use this increased mechanization to facilitate progress across open fields before seasonal rain and muddy conditions set in, as well as to allow Russian forces to consolidate positions in preparation for future offensive operations in the coming months.

ISW estimates that Russian forces will continue offensive operations after the fall rout, although adverse weather conditions are likely to reduce the effectiveness of Russian infantry until weather and ground conditions improve.

In particular, Russian forces may seek to retain the initiative across the entire theater of operations through a sustained offensive push in the fall of 2024, commentators believe.