The upcoming presidential elections in the USA will probably be decided in a number of so-called "wavering" states. Why they play such a big role in determining the president and what topics excite people there.
Residents of 50 states will go to the polls on November 5, but the vote in only a few of them will determine who will be the next occupant of the White House. While in most states it is generally certain whether the Democrats or the Republicans will prevail, in the so-called “wavering“ states, the majority supports the candidate of one party, then the other. That is exactly why they are the focus of election campaigns. They host the most popular events, the candidates visit them most often, and advertisements literally flood the voters.
Results in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will determine whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump reaches the necessary 270 electoral votes to be elected President of the United States. In the complex American electoral system, each state casts a corresponding number of electoral votes that determine the final outcome. Thus, it is quite possible for a candidate to win even though he received fewer votes nationally - as happened in 2000, when Al Gore lost to George W. Bush, and in 2016, when Donald Trump was elected, albeit for Hillary Almost three million more Americans voted for Clinton.
The list of “wavering“ states has changed over the years due to various demographic and cultural reasons. For most Americans, the economy, inflation and abortion rights are the defining issues for their choice this time. But there are other key issues in individual states:
Arizona
Arizona is located on the border with Mexico, so illegal immigration is extremely important to the state's residents. Kamala Harris was tasked with fighting this problem during Biden's tenure, but many say she failed. Donald Trump does not miss an opportunity to recall this.
At the same time, because of the great migration, Arizona's population is growing, and currently about a third of the people living there are Hispanic. This constituency is also key. The southern state is also trying to boost its manufacturing sector. The CHIPS Act signed by Joe Biden would provide billions in funding for computer chip factories. The current president won the Arizona election in 2020.
Number of electoral votes: 11
Georgia
In 2020, Biden also won Georgia. It was the first time a Democratic candidate had won the state since 1992. Georgia has one of the highest percentages of black voters at about 33 percent. This could prove to be an advantage for Kamala Harris. It is in this state that Trump is being sued for attempting to manipulate the outcome of the previous election.
Number of electoral votes: 16
Michigan
Here is the center of the American automobile industry - Ford, General Motors, Chrysler – they are all headquartered in this Midwestern state. Joe Biden imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports to protect Michigan jobs. The state's governor, Gretchen Whitmer, is among the most approved politicians in the Democratic Party.
Michigan has a large community of voters with Arab roots. Kamala Harris must earn their trust, which has been seriously shaken by the Democrats' support for Israel in the Middle East war.
In 2020, Michigan voted for Joe Biden.
Number of electoral votes: 15
Nevada
Nevada is close to the border with Mexico, so the subject of migration is particularly important there as well. About a third of the population speaks Spanish. Nevada is economically dependent on tourism and has seen the strongest economic growth among swing states during the Biden administration. At the same time, the unemployment rate is higher than in any other federal state. Biden won in Nevada in 2020.
Number of electoral votes: 6
North Carolina
Former President Trump wants to re-enter the White HousePhoto: Carlos Osorio/AP Photo/picture alliance
North Carolina is a debutant on the “wavering” states. In the last 11 elections, the Democrats have won only once. But there is a serious demographic change in the country. While in 1990 75% of voters were white, today they are only 60%. North Carolina's population has grown substantially in recent decades. It attracts different groups of society - from retired military personnel to highly educated specialists.
Trump won in 2020.
Number of electoral votes: 16
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania has a serious problem with inflation and rising prices. Thanks to fracking, the state is the largest producer of natural gas in the country after Texas. Trump has long been a supporter of fracking. Harris, on the other hand, previously pushed for a ban on the technology, but now supports it under stricter regulations. Pennsylvania will cast the most electoral votes among the swing states, and the race is highly contested. It is no coincidence that the only televised debate between Trump and Harris took place there.
In 2020, Joe Biden won in Pennsylvania.
Number of electoral votes: 19
Wisconsin
In no other “wavering“ state does not have as many white voters as Wisconsin. And in no key state has turnout been as high in the last two votes. Both in 2016 and 2020, the candidate who became president won there – first Trump, then Biden – in both cases it came by a narrow margin of less than 25,000 votes. It shows how important every vote can be in Wisconsin.
Number of electoral votes: 10