The former President Donald Trump on Sunday edged out Vice President Harris for the first time in Decision Desk HQ/The Hill's election forecast this cycle.
The model predicts Trump has a 52 percent chance of winning the presidency, while Harris has a 48 percent chance, as of Sunday.
As of late August, the election forecast put Harris's chances of winning at roughly 54 to 56 percent, with Trump's chances at roughly 44 to 46 percent. In early October, however, this dynamic began to change, and the election forecast projected the chances of both candidates to be closer to 50 percent.
On October 17, the model predicted that the two candidates were equally likely to win next month, and Trump came out on top on October 20.
The change in the election forecast coincides with the Republican nominee's improved average results in Wisconsin and Michigan, two swing states that previously leaned slightly toward Harris. Trump already has a small lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
Of the seven swing states considered decisive in determining the outcome of the 2024 election, Pennsylvania is the only one that still favors Harris in its average poll.
Still, the election remains "in the balance", according to projections, as polls in all seven states remain within the margin of statistical error, meaning typical polling inaccuracies could swing the results either way.
Those states are expected to be decisive in determining which candidate reaches the decisive 270 electoral votes. Currently, neither Trump nor Harris has an outright lead in enough states to secure that number.
The cards are turning! Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris
Of the seven swing states considered to be decisive in determining the outcome of the 2024 election, Pennsylvania is the only one that still favors Harris in its polling average
Oct 21, 2024 21:54 59
