For the ruling party "Georgian Dream" the vote was a choice between peace and war, which she claimed the opposition wanted to drag Georgia into. The political technologists of the ruling party do not hesitate in their choice of means. A month before the vote, they released videos and banners that demonstrated what the country could expect if the opposition forces won. Black and white photos show footage of destroyed and burning buildings in Ukraine, which suffered from Russian aggression. And on the other side – color images of new and renovated buildings in Georgia. On the black-and-white photos, there is the inscription “No to the war!“ and the numbers with which the four main opposition forces participate in the elections are crossed out, and the colored ones read “Choose peace!“ and there you can see the election number of the ruling "Georgian Dream".
In turn, the opposition claims that Georgians must make a choice between a European future and the isolation that the country is threatened with if Russian influence increases.
Is there a polarization of society in Georgia
Many experts are of the opinion that Georgia is highly polarized ahead of the elections. In the words of Stefan Mallerius from the “Konrad Adenauer“ in Tbilisi, society is concentrated around two main political forces: former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's party “United National Movement” and the "Georgian Dream" party, founded by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. “In the last 3-4 years, this polarization has intensified to such an extent that the two sides are no longer talking to each other. They talk about each other, but not to each other. This also applies to the media connected to these parties”, the expert notes.
Political scientist Hans Gutbrot, lecturer at the State University “Ilya Chavchavadze” is of a different opinion. He told DV that the term “polarization“ does not fit the description of what is happening in Georgia. “The government likes to use it to create a sense of conflict between two very large groups,”, he explains, adding that in fact there is “a small clique that has appropriated everything, and a people left out”.
According to Gutbrot, it is wrong to think that Georgia is a country divided into pro-Russia and pro-Western countries. “The idea that the country is divided is false and it is a dangerous approach,“, he believes. Gutbrot is sure that “the vast majority wants to become part of Europe and the West”.
Under a European flag in the direction of Russia?
Stefan Malerius also believes that Georgians' sympathies for the EU have never waned and that the country's population has been firmly pro-European for almost two decades. “Georgians want Europe, not Russia. That is, Russia is very unpopular here both from a geopolitical point of view and from the point of view of the economic development of the country”, he says.
It is obvious that the ruling party senses these sentiments. Otherwise, there is no way to explain that even “Georgian Dream” conducts its campaign using the symbols of the EU for its banners and slogans such as “We will take the country to the European Union” or “In Europe – with dignity“.
However, as Hans Gutbrot told DV – the ruling party has its own vision of the EU. “I think that those who look at Georgia from the sidelines should understand what the views of this government are. Viktor Orbán and everything related to him serve as a reference point. And this means that we are talking about corruption on a huge scale, waste of state funds, robbery of the population, mass emigration. After all, they are leading the country to exactly that“, notes the political scientist.
He points out that this policy of “Georgian Dream“ is closely related to the personal position of its creator – Georgia's richest man Bidzina Ivanishvili. Gutbrot recalls that his views changed sharply in 2021-2022, when he began to treat the West extremely negatively. “He had personal reasons, it is related to his struggle with the Swiss bank Credit Suisse”, says the political scientist. He suggests that this clash has caused the oligarch to turn away from Western institutions. “I think this is a mistaken belief of his, but he thinks that the West is personally concerned with removing him from power.“
Gutbrot is convinced that the government created by the “Georgian Dream” is interested in maintaining its power at all costs. “And if you are interested in keeping power at all costs, then Russia is your best ally,”, he emphasizes. Stefan Malerius also thinks so, according to whom the course of the “Georgian Dream” is Russia's rate. “This is a policy aimed at diverting Georgia from the European path and bringing it closer to Russia,” says the expert.
Georgia – no chances for European integration?
In Brussels they have already stated that because of the policy of “Georgian dream“ the country will have to forget its European ambitions, recalls Stefan Mallerius. And as Hans Gutbrot says, the reason is simple: in the EU, decisions on membership are made not on the basis of words, but on the basis of the actions of the government in the candidate country. And in Brussels, they see very well what "Georgian Dream" has done. until today – total subjugation of the judicial sector and suppression of all institutions protecting civil rights. If, as a result of the elections, this course continues, there will be no question of joining the EU. “As one Baltic politician said, you cannot move towards Europe if one of your feet is in Moscow”, Gutbrot sums up.
Author: Maria Katamadze