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Putin plans no ceasefire in Ukraine regardless of US presidential election outcome

Analysts believe Russian aggression will continue until Washington offers decisive support to Ukraine

Nov 4, 2024 21:53 122

Putin plans no ceasefire in Ukraine regardless of US presidential election outcome  - 1

Regardless of who will win the upcoming US presidential election, Russian President Vladimir Putin has no intention of calling a truce in the war against Ukraine at its current stage. This is written by *Business Insider*, referring to the opinions of analysts, quoted by BTA.

In recent months, Russia has stepped up its pressure on Ukraine, with the Russian armed forces sending additional troops and using their superiority in artillery shells to make slow but steady progress on the front. In addition, North Korea also supports the Russian side.

„Kiev is very concerned about the situation, partly because of Russia's military superiority in many respects,” commented Robert Dover, professor of intelligence and national security at the University of Hull, UK.

Experts note that the campaign rhetoric of Donald Trump and his vice-presidential candidate JD Vance could encourage Putin to launch a new wave of aggression. “If Russia is confident that its territorial claims in Ukraine can be satisfied by Washington, Moscow may expand these claims outside Ukraine,”, believes political analyst Paul Cormary of the RAND Corporation.

According to analysts, even a possible victory of Kamala Harris in the election will not be a sufficient reason for Putin to end military operations. They note that US military aid during the Joe Biden administration, while a lifesaver for Ukraine, remained limited. Washington has imposed restrictions on how Ukrainians can use this aid.

The authors of the publication emphasize that if Biden's policies continue during a possible Harris term, Putin will realize that he can continue his war of attrition against Ukraine, as the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) will continue to experience serious shortage of weapons and ammunition.

Economist Alexander Mertens recently stressed that Russia will face an economic crisis whether it continues the war or decides to cease fire. This means that Putin has no serious incentive to end hostilities.

According to commentators, Putin's goal is not just to conquer Ukraine, but also to weaken the global influence of the United States in cooperation with other partner countries. Neither Harris nor Trump are likely to be able to get Putin to change course in his pursuit of victory in Ukraine and the achievement of his larger global ambitions, the publication notes.