Just days after Israel's retaliatory attack on military targets in Iran, Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani announced that the defense budget would be increased by more than 200%. However, she did not provide other specific figures. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI estimates Iran's defense budget for 2023 at nearly ten billion euros. This is about half of Israel's military spending. Iran ranks fourth in the Middle East in terms of defense budgets.
Strike and counterstrike
„The Israeli retaliatory strike caused significant damage to Iran. But the decision to increase the defense budget was not made solely for this reason,“ explains Middle East expert Hamidreza Azizi from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin to DW. He adds: “In recent months, the sense of security in Tehran has decreased. The development of events in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine has taken a different direction than Iran expected. Tehran was counting on its proxies like Hezbollah against Israel and on a quick victory for Russia in Ukraine. However, these calculations did not work out.“
The war in Gaza continues. Israel has announced that it will destroy the radical Islamic organization Hamas after it killed about 1,200 people in a terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. The European Union (EU), the United States and other countries consider Hamas a terrorist organization. The same applies to the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, actively supported by Iran, against which the Israeli army has taken action in southern Lebanon, as it has regularly attacked Israel with missiles since October 7. After the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Iran launched a huge number of ballistic missiles at Israel. Most of them were intercepted by Israeli air defenses. On October 26, Israel responded with a retaliatory strike, in which Iran said four Iranian soldiers and one civilian were killed.
“Our army was left to fend for itself“, an angry journalist said at a press conference by the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman. “We did not receive either the modern S-400 air defense system or the SU-35S fighter jets from Russia, which needs our drones and missiles for its war against Ukraine. How does the government assess this shameless attitude of the aggressor Mr. Putin?“, the journalist wanted to know more.
Harmful cooperation in the field of defense with Russia?
After the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow significantly strengthened its cooperation with Tehran. According to Ukrainian intelligence, by the end of 2022, Russia had purchased more than 2,000 drones from Iran. In mid-October, the European Union imposed new sanctions on Iran after reports of the supply of ballistic missiles to Russia.
Russia is said to have promised to supply Iran with the modern S-400 air defense system. Some versions of this system are equipped with a radar that can detect even modern stealth aircraft, possibly even the American F-35 fighter jets used by Israel. Iran currently has several S-300 systems, the older generation of the Russian air defense system. The Russian SU-35 fighter jets, which have been under discussion since 2016 and for which Iranian pilots have already been trained in Russia, have not yet been delivered by Russia.
„Israel has shown that it can attack targets throughout Iran if it wants to, said terrorism expert Hans-Jakob Schindler of the transatlantic think tank Counter Extremism Project (CEP) in an interview with DW. He was apparently referring to the successful missions of Israeli fighter jets that returned unharmed after striking targets in Iran.
In Search of Allies
According to the Israeli military, more than 100 fighter jets took part in the attacks, destroying several military sites on Iranian territory, including facilities for producing solid rocket fuel, according to US satellite images. This could significantly affect Iran's ability to mass-produce missiles, Decker Evelet of the CNA think tank in Washington told Reuters. Among the facilities destroyed was likely a factory in Shahroud, about 1,200 km from Iran's western border.
However, Tehran claims that the Israeli attack caused only minor damage. Thanks to intensive diplomatic efforts in the region, the country was prepared, explained Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. In recent weeks, Araghchi has tried to convince Iran's neighboring countries to deny Israel use of their airspace. However, Israel carried out the attack through a corridor created by the United States. “The Iranian government has intensified its diplomatic efforts and is now seeking dialogue with the West, especially the United States“, confirms Middle East expert Hamidreza Azizi. “Tehran can use the current anti-Russian sentiment to distance itself from Russia“. Increasing the defense budget also means raising the salaries of military personnel. Due to high inflation and the ongoing economic crisis in the country, this is increasing dissatisfaction among civil servants, the observer also points out.
Author: Shabnam von Hein