As the inauguration date of the newly elected US President Donald Trump approaches, calls in the information space, if not openly for peace with the aggressor country, then at least for a truce, are becoming louder.
Unfortunately, many who say this have no idea of the medium-term perspective, which in the event of peace or a truce could turn into a global catastrophe. This is what military-political analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko writes for OBOZ.ua.
A strange déjà vu is emerging. Exactly a year ago, I presented a number of arguments showing that the cessation of active hostilities would allow Russia to accumulate its potential and launch military operations for a certain period, with an even greater scope and ambition, including an invasion of the territory of NATO countries. It should be noted that over the past year the situation with such threats has not changed dramatically for the better, but even worsened, as Russia has acquired a fairly reliable ally - North Korea, Kovalenko points out.
Putin's initial invasion failed, but today Russia has transferred not only the military-industrial complex, but also its economy to a military basis and is able to quickly carry out restoration and repair work.
North Korea has been quite actively helping Russia with impunity since 2023. The behavior of Western countries only strengthens the feeling of impunity of Kim Jong-un, which encourages and stimulates him to take the next criminal step.
The Russian command already has experience in using the North Korean army in the war against Ukraine, and requests for human resources may come during the period of the “truce“. If we take into account the average potential for the deployment of 12 thousand units of personnel for 3 months, then within a year a combined army of about 50 thousand, composed entirely of citizens of the DPRK, can be formed in Russia.
A year of the truce will allow Russia to increase the potential of the mechanized component from the current level by 2-3 times, and the human resource of the army will be increased by 2 times. And what will Russia do with such potential? Will it build schools, kindergartens, oncology centers and railways? No, it will start a big war again.
During this period, the NATO countries will not even have time to hold their consultations on who, how and with what will help repel the aggression.
The West clearly does not understand that any truce and peace means the approach of a third world war in Europe itself, and not freezing the threats in Ukraine. Postponing the inevitable - instead of putting an end to it by defeating the enemy when he is already exhausted. Instead, they will try to give him the opportunity to become stronger.
Despite the extremely poor state of Russia at the moment, it, using the existing restoration potential and the support of its allies, will significantly increase its capabilities quantitatively. Let me emphasize: not qualitatively, but quantitatively.
And against this background, I don't understand how blind a person must have faith (or infinite stupidity) to hope that with all this potential, the Russian criminal authorities will not seek revenge.
Now Ukraine has a chance to win, to defeat an enemy that is exhausted like never before in its history. With the “truce” we will no longer have such a chance.