The official count of casualties from the war between Israel and "Hamas" in Palestine is likely underestimated by 41%, according to a new study published in the peer-reviewed medical journal The Lancet, News.bg reports.
According to the analysis carried out by an international team of scientists, the death toll in the first nine months of the war (October 2023 - June 2024) is estimated at 64,260 people, instead of the approximately 46,000 announced by the Palestinian health authorities.
Study Methodology
Academics from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Yale University used the capture-recapture analysis method to refine the data. They note that:
- Over 59% of the dead were women, children, and elderly people over 65.
- Information is missing about "Hamas" fighters among the casualties.
- The military campaign has made it significantly more difficult for Palestinian health institutions to maintain up-to-date records due to attacks on hospitals and disruptions in communications.
Deterioration of health infrastructure
The study highlights that the collapse of the health system in the Gaza Strip contributes to the discrepancy in data:
- Attacks on hospitals: Many health facilities have been destroyed or damaged.
- Disruptions in communications: Electronic death registers are no longer reliable.
- According to The Lancet, the system was previously quite accurate, but the conflict has put it under unimaginable strain.
Israel and Hamas – allegations and counter-accusations
Israel claims it is taking action to avoid civilian casualties, accusing "Hamas" of using hospitals as a cover for military operations. "Hamas" denies these allegations.
The analysis in The Lancet raises important questions about the reliability of official casualty figures in military conflicts. It highlights the humanitarian cost of war, drawing attention to the need to improve transparency and accountability in such crises.