The Inspector General of the Bundeswehr (the highest-ranking officer in the German armed forces) Carsten Breuer is categorical: Ukraine is not at all the only goal of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia continues to arm itself, and with the end of the war in Ukraine, peace will not return to the European continent, he stated bluntly in one of the most popular television talk shows in Germany.
Carlo Massala, a professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, also agrees with this. He was even clearer: "Russia is preparing for a big war", Masala assured in the same program.
A permanent threat to Europe
Recently, representatives of the Bundeswehr have been warning more clearly than ever that Russia poses a permanent threat to peace in Europe - and that it is possible that it will launch an attack on a NATO country. This is evidenced by the latest data from European intelligence services, which have made an up-to-date assessment of the situation.
The same is also confirmed by a joint report by the Federal Intelligence Service of Germany (foreign intelligence BND) and the Bundeswehr (German armed forces). It states that by the end of the decade, Russia will probably have met all the prerequisites to be able to wage a "large-scale conventional war", reports the German public broadcaster ARD.
Imperialist goals
The report in question summarizes and evaluates information collected by the Bundeswehr and the BND over the past few years. In addition to open sources, this information also contains intelligence data, satellite observations and analyses of the economic and military situation, and the forecast has been repeatedly described as "almost certain" - the highest category on the intelligence services' assessment scale.
The main message in this document: the conflict with Moscow could escalate and last for a long time. Russia sees itself in a systemic conflict with the West and is ready to realize its imperialist goals with military force, far beyond the borders of Ukraine, although there are currently no indications of an "imminent Russian confrontation with NATO."
"Limited military action" is possible soon
According to intelligence and military analysts, Moscow is showing no real signs of readiness for compromise in the war against Ukraine, and despite sanctions, Russia is capable of positioning itself militarily in such a way that it will soon be able to attack a NATO country.
This assessment is consistent with a confidential analysis by the Lithuanian domestic intelligence service VSD, considered in security circles to be an excellent expert on Russia, ARD reports. Analysts in Vilnius conclude that in the medium term, Russia will not yet be able to wage a "large-scale conventional war against NATO", but it will be able to undertake "limited military actions against one or more NATO countries".
Russia continues to have sufficient ammunition, the Lithuanian intelligence assessment also says. "Although Western sanctions have a negative impact on the Russian defense industry, the volume of production of artillery shells, missiles and other important categories of ammunition is increasing every year. Russia has not yet reached the limit of its financial capabilities and continues to be able to finance the war. The Kremlin's military spending has recently been increasing at an incredible pace and will reach around 120 billion euros this year, Vilnius-based analysts say.
Lessons from previous years
According to the German intelligence service, Russia can not only compensate for the large losses of personnel and equipment in Ukraine, but is even able to continue rearmament. According to the assessment of the situation, the Russian military economy produces more than is needed for the war against Ukraine. In addition, Putin has ordered up to 1.5 million more soldiers to be recruited by 2026.
The fact that the assessment of the German intelligence service BND is so sharp and alarming may also be a lesson from unfortunate assessments from previous years, ARD points out and recalls some of them: for example, the events in Kabul in August 2021. and the subsequent chaotic evacuation of the German embassy there, but also the service's sleepwalking into the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
German intelligence apparently no longer wants to be accused of not recognizing or misinterpreting the signs of the times, ARD points out. Perhaps that is why the head of the service, Bruno Kahl, warned last November that the Russian military doubted NATO's defensive readiness and that Moscow could very soon decide to put it to the test.
Combat-ready Air Force and Navy in the Baltics
But where could such a test for NATO take place? The Baltic states, former Soviet republics, are considered to be particularly at risk. Experts from the BND and the Bundeswehr have also analyzed the situation there and come to a mixed conclusion.
About three-quarters of the soldiers and equipment of the Russian troops from the border areas with the Baltic states are currently engaged in Ukraine. However, this does not apply to the Russian air and naval forces, which remain fully operational in the Baltic region. However, the risk of a Russian invasion of the Baltic states is currently considered low. However, this could change quickly.
The Baltic states are better prepared
If a ceasefire is reached in Ukraine and some form of peace is established there, it is very likely that Russian units will be redeployed. Rearmament will allow the losses of equipment and ammunition to be quickly replenished. Then Russia will be able to direct its military power against one of the NATO countries.
However, German analysts also point to encouraging signs: Russia's influence in the three Baltic states, both politically and socially and economically, has decreased significantly. Russian-speaking citizens are integrating better, and the population's resistance to attempts at destabilization and influence by Moscow has increased. These are all events in recent years that would at least make a Russian invasion more difficult, the ARD publication also says.
Author: Manuel Bewarder (ARD) | Florian Flade (ARD)