The events in the Middle East have greatly weakened the Islamist group Hezbollah. There is almost no support coming from Iran anymore, and Israel continues to attack it. Is the Lebanese group ready to disarm, ARD asks.
Hezbollah and Israel are old enemies – they have already fought several wars with each other. The attack by the terrorist group Hamas against Israel on October 7, 2023 and the subsequent outbreak of the war in Gaza reignited the old conflict between Hezbollah and Israel – followed 14 months of clashes, which, especially for the people in the border regions of Lebanon, were like a real new war, ARD recalls. It was there that the Israeli strikes caused massive destruction.
"Who will rebuild our houses? Why did we do this? Was it worth paying such a high price to save Gaza?", asks political scientist Sami Nader. He tells ARD that as a result of the war in Gaza, Hezbollah has lost popularity and is already greatly weakened militarily.
Other countries were also involved in the conflict. Iran, for example, sees Hezbollah as an important instrument of the so-called “axis of resistance“ in the Middle East, with which Tehran is fighting Israel. Until recently, Hezbollah militias were considered the most powerful force in Lebanon, even more powerful than the Lebanese army.
Without new weapons and without money
Heavily armed by Iran, the group had an arsenal of weapons that before the war was estimated at around 150,000 missiles. And its supply of money and weapons was mainly through Syria, where Hezbollah supported the Assad regime. Now, however, it has also been weakened by the fall of dictator Bashar Assad.
The heaviest blow to Hezbollah came in mid-September last year: on September 17 and 18, 2024, Israel blew up thousands of pagers belonging to members of the organization in Lebanon. There were thousands of wounded, 80% of Hezbollah's missile arsenal was destroyed, its leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed, as well as almost its entire leadership.
Hezbollah has not been the same since then. The group is in a serious financial crisis, as it no longer has the support it used to receive from Iran, according to political scientist Nader. According to him, it has lost its old supply routes and is isolated. Hezbollah no longer receives new fighters, weapons or money from the neighboring country, the expert says.
A state within a state
Many Western countries define Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. However, in Lebanon it is an important political force, represented in parliament since 2005. In the country, the group fulfills a number of social responsibilities and is one of the largest employers. Moreover, Hezbollah maintains its own infrastructure of hospitals, schools and institutions, which is why observers call it a “state within a state“.
Is Hezbollah ready to disarm?
Hezbollah supporters reject the complete disarmament of the group, but this was precisely the condition set by the US and Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar in order to send aid for Lebanon's economic recovery.
Political scientist Nader suggests that the process of disarming Hezbollah will still continue, even though the group will try to keep some of its weapons inside the country.
He recalls that all attempts in previous years to solve this problem through dialogue have not led to any results and names the main stumbling block: “There can be no functioning state power in Lebanon if Hezbollah retains its weapons“.
“However, if the group is disarmed by force, it could plunge the entire country into civil war. Therefore, the only way out is for Hezbollah to make this decision for itself - for the sake of its voters and the unity of our country,“ the expert says.