Russian President Vladimir Putin is not looking for a way out of the war, but continues to wage it as a "eternal conflict" - without a clear military victory, but with an unyielding insistence that Ukraine be subjugated. This is what British strategist Lawrence Friedman claims in an analysis for Foreign Affairs magazine, entitled "Why Putin Is Still at War", Focus reports.
Instead of a short and decisive campaign, the invasion of Ukraine has turned into a protracted conflict with no realistic end. According to Friedman, ending such a war requires both sides to reconsider their goals - something the Kremlin flatly refuses to do.
Friedman claims that even a generous offer from Donald Trump for a ceasefire - with control over the occupied territories and Ukraine's refusal to join NATO - was rejected by Putin. There are several reasons:
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Ukraine is at the center of his ambitions - Putin aims to keep it in Russia's orbit and does not accept the possibility of its full independence.
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Danger of internal turmoil - a retreat would provoke the anger of ultranationalists and doubts about the legitimacy of his power.
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Geopolitical prestige - Putin does not want to appear weak in front of his partners such as China, Iran and North Korea.
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War with the West - he presents the conflict as part of a broader battle with NATO, in which concessions are a strategic failure.
Even economic relief does not motivate him, because he does not believe that the West will honor commitments to lift sanctions, and investors will not return to Russia anyway.
On the Ukrainian side, Kiev is aware that it cannot regain all its territories soon, but it believes that it can still hold out. The Ukrainian army, despite the need for new mobilization, continues to defend the country. Russia has not yet taken cities that were considered doomed back in 2023.
According to Friedman, change could come if Western support for Ukraine strengthens and the country achieves new breakthroughs on the front. This would force the Kremlin to rethink its position. For the time being, however, while Putin believes that he can win through attrition and long-term pressure, peace remains a distant goal.