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Kremlin is preparing Russians for long-term conflict with the West, says ISW analysis

Lavrov presents war in Ukraine as a lonely struggle, despite support from Iran, North Korea and China

Jul 29, 2025 09:18 436

Kremlin is preparing Russians for long-term conflict with the West, says ISW analysis  - 1

Kremlin officials continue to present Russia as a country in direct geopolitical confrontation with the West, in order to mobilize domestic support for the war in Ukraine and possible future aggression against NATO, News.bg reports.

At a Russian youth forum held on July 28, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that “Russia is fighting alone against the entire West… for the first time in history“ and that the country must “rely on itself“. This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The ISW researchers also note that former US President Donald Trump has shortened his ultimatum to Vladimir Putin regarding the war to August 9.

Lavrov further stated that Russia “has no allies on the battlefield”, unlike in World Wars I and II. However, this statement ignores the clear support that Russia receives from North Korea, Iran and China.

North Korea has sent ballistic missiles, artillery shells and even North Korean military personnel in support of Russian actions against Ukraine. In addition, there are clear political and economic signs of growing rapprochement between Moscow and Pyongyang.

Iranian Shahed drones have played a key role in Russian air strikes on Ukrainian cities, with Iranian assistance allowing Russia to become self-sufficient in producing its own versions of these drones. These drones are increasingly being used in front-line strikes.

China also plays a critical role, helping Russia circumvent Western sanctions and supplying dual-use components and microelectronics vital to the Russian military industry.

The strengthening of relations between Russia, Iran, North Korea and China forms the basis for a potential global anti-Western alliance. The Kremlin is deliberately seeking to build such an axis, which poses a serious threat to Western security. Lavrov's remarks underscore the Russian leadership's efforts to impose an ideological narrative that presents the West as Russia's existential enemy, in order to strengthen domestic support and consolidate power.

Lavrov also argued that Russia "had no other alternative" but to start the war in Ukraine to "protect Russian-speakers" in the country, a frequently used justification for Russian aggression.

His statements underscore the Kremlin’s commitment to continuing the war, especially among Russia’s younger generation. Propaganda and public opinion-mobilization efforts remain a priority, and various polls, both state-run and independent, show that a majority of Russians support continuing the conflict until the stated goals of “denazification,” demilitarization, and neutrality of Ukraine are achieved.

The Kremlin-crafted narrative makes it much harder for President Vladimir Putin to present any peace agreement as a victory if it does not fully meet those goals. Without significant military successes by Ukraine to force concessions, Putin is unlikely to agree to a compromise. Any agreement that deviates from his maximalist demands would be perceived domestically as a failure.