Kiev's allies remain divided on how to protect Ukraine in a possible peace deal with Russia, with no clear mechanism for the "ironclad guarantees" that President Volodymyr Zelensky has insisted on, writes "Politico".
At a meeting on Monday, US President Donald Trump assured Zelensky and European leaders that Kiev would receive protection similar to that under NATO's Article 5, but did not provide details. On Tuesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio headed a committee with Ukraine's allies to develop a security plan. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that in the "coming days" will discuss preparing a "stabilization force" if the fighting ends.
The most obvious option — Ukraine's membership in NATO — remains ruled out by Washington and some European capitals, most notably Russia. Instead, missions with limited mandates are being discussed, but they raise questions about who would send troops, under what conditions, and with what budget.
Trump has said the United States will not send troops and insisted that Europe shoulder the burden. French President Emmanuel Macron has announced a readiness to deploy French, British, German, and Turkish forces, while Germany, due to limited military resources, remains reserved. Turkey could play a key role but faces resistance within the EU, with Poland and Italy ruling out sending troops, instead offering logistical support or a defense pact.
Political constraints are undermining Macron and Starmer’s leadership ambitions, and skepticism about whether European countries can realistically provide a contingent is growing. "Even a small troop deployment would be a challenge," a German lawmaker told "Politico" on condition of anonymity.
Moscow has warned that any presence of NATO forces in Ukraine would lead to "uncontrollable escalation". The memory of the unfulfilled promises in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, when Kiev gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees, makes Ukrainian authorities particularly suspicious of vague language.
Three years after the start of full-scale war, the allies continue to discuss the same issues without a solution. "Sometimes", said a senior Eastern European diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal alliance thinking, "it's hard to understand what we're talking about.".
The senior Polish official was even more direct, arguing that the whole discussion was premature: "Nothing will happen because the fighting doesn't stop," he told Politico. "The Americans don't seem to want to get too close to Russia, and the Europeans continue to support Ukraine, so we're in a stalemate."