Milorad Dodik is no longer the president of Republika Srpska - one of the two administrative parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Supreme Court rejected his appeal and banned him from participating in political activities for the next six years. This process lasted two whole years.
"I will not be overthrown by a foreign government"
However, implementing the decision will not be easy - Dodik will not step down without a fight. "I will not respect the decision. I only respect the will of the Serbian people. They are impudent and arrogant and expect me to simply surrender. I will not do it," Dodik said after the court's decision and stated that he remains the president of Republika Srpska. "The people elected me, no foreign government will overthrow me."
This puts Bosnia and Herzegovina on the brink of a constitutional crisis. Now the country's Central Election Commission must schedule early elections for the president of Republika Srpska. However, its leaders in Banja Luka have already stated that they will oppose such a vote, "if necessary, with the help of the police". This will further strain relations between the three ethnic groups in the country - Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats. Since 1992, Bosnia has been fighting a bloody war, which only ended in 1995 with the Dayton Peace Agreement.
A referendum on independence?
The government of Bosnia and Herzegovina has already announced that it will not tolerate non-compliance with the recommendations of the Central Election Commission. Foreign Minister Elmedin Konaković, who is Bosniak, has started a procedure to revoke Dodik's diplomatic passport, now that he is no longer in office. At the same time, Republika Srpska is preparing to hold a referendum on whether Dodik should be removed from office and whether the territory should secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Dodik, on the other hand, has continued to serve as president, despite being officially removed from office. He even accepted the resignation of the prime minister and appointed a new one, which means that the new government will be illegitimate before the Constitutional Court, since it was not appointed by a sitting president.
The former leader of Republika Srpska has repeatedly announced in the past that he will hold a referendum on the region's independence, but only one has been held, the results of which have been annulled. This time, the situation is different - Dodik is at an impasse and observers believe that he has nothing left to lose. That is why he will probably carry out his plan for a national referendum on the issue of independence.
A divided opposition
Meanwhile, Dodik's opposition in Republika Srpska is trying to reach a consensus on a common candidate for the upcoming early elections. However, this is a difficult task - the mayor of Banja Luka, who is the leader of the Party of Democratic Progress, Draško Stanivuković, is also opposed to new elections. He accuses the most important international diplomat in Bosnia, the high representative who monitors compliance with the Dayton Peace Agreement, of being responsible for the crisis in the country, since he adopted the law on the basis of which Dodik was convicted.
For the other opposition parties in Republika Srpska, this is a clear sign that Stanivuković is on Dodik's side. "The masks have fallen. Stanivukovic must act as Vucic and Dodik say, and he receives signals from them on how to behave in order to cause the greatest possible damage to the opposition. And to prevent unity", commented the leader of the opposition party "List of Justice and Order" Nebojsa Vukanovic.
In 1995, Serbia signed the Dayton Peace Agreement. Currently, Bosnia's eastern neighbor is staying out of Bosnian internal politics. The government in Belgrade has so far provided only lukewarm verbal support - the verdict against Dodik is "the most serious political blow to the Serbian people since the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement" and the Serbian people "will not remain silent", the Serbian capital said.
Hungary and Russia support Dodik
Dodik was also supported by Budapest - Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has already stated that the current president of Republika Srpska is on trial because he "refuses to play Brussels' games". According to Orban, Budapest will not respect the decision against Dodik. The Russian embassy in Bosnia also rejected the court's decision.
However, Croatia has scolded Dodik, who otherwise maintained good relations in the country - the Prime Minister of Bosnia's western neighbor, Andrej Plenković, has called on Dodik to comply with the court and not destabilize the country. Croatia is also a party to the Dayton Agreement.
Milorad Dodik is not the first president of Republika Srpska to be banned from participating in the country's political life. In 1999, then-High Representative Carlos Westendorp dismissed President Nikola Poplasen. Milorad Dodik has led the region ever since.
Author: Dragan Maksimović