On the night of August 27-28, Russia killed at least 21 civilians, including children, and damaged civilian infrastructure and European diplomatic facilities during the second-largest strike of the war so far and the largest strike since the Alaska summit on August 15. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that the Russians launched a total of 629 drones and missiles into Ukraine, including 598 "Shahed" drones from the cities of Kursk, Bryansk and Orel, Millerovo, Rostov Region, Shatalovo, Smolensk Region and others
This is what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes.
The strikes were primarily aimed at the city of Kiev. The head of the Kyiv city military administration, Timur Tkachenko, reported that Russian drones and missiles had struck more than 20 locations in Kyiv and caused significant damage to residential buildings in the city.
Ukrainian Interior Minister Igor Klymenko reported that a direct missile strike on a residential building in the Darnytsia district of Kyiv killed 12 people, including four children.
Ukraine's State Emergency Service reported that as of 8:40 p.m. local time on August 28, the death toll in Kyiv had risen to 21.
The British Council and the EU Delegation to Ukraine confirmed serious damage to their respective buildings in Kyiv, while the European Commission (EC) and the United Kingdom recalled Russian envoys in Brussels and London.
Russian forces have struck a U.S. civilian facility in the Transcarpathian region in their latest series of massive strikes on 20-21 August, which ISW assessed at the time as likely part of a broader Russian effort to discourage allies from investing in Ukraine.
The strikes were likely intended to generate a similar effect at a time when the United States and Europe are working closely to define appropriate security guarantees for Ukraine in a future peace agreement.
The US Special Envoy for Ukraine, General Keith Kellogg, condemned the strikes as a threat to the peace that US President Donald Trump is currently seeking.
Russia also targeted transport infrastructure in Vinnytsia Oblast on the night of 27-28 August. Ukrainian railway operator "Ukrzaliznytsia" reported that Russia had struck cars of the Intercity+ high-speed train and a railway junction in Kozyatyn, Vinnytsia Oblast, causing a massive power outage that has affected railways across Ukraine.
Russia is likely to escalate its strikes against Ukraine in the coming weeks.
Ukraine's ongoing campaign of strikes targeting Russian oil refineries is contributing to a shortage of gasoline across Russia, which is likely to increase inflation and cause further macroeconomic instability in Russia. On August 28, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that elements of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and Special Operations Forces (SOF) had carried out a drone strike on the "Kuibyshev" oil refinery in Samara Oblast.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the "Kuibyshev" oil refinery produces gasoline, diesel fuel, fuel oil and solvents and has a processing capacity of seven million tons per year.
The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces, the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of Ukraine and the Forces of Unmanned Systems (SBS) carried out strikes on the "Afipsky" oil refinery in Neftekachka, Krasnodar Krai, south of the city of Krasnodar. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the "Afipsky" oil refinery has a production capacity of 6.25 million tons of oil per year and plays a vital role in providing fuel to the Russian military.
The head of the Ukrainian Center for Combating Disinformation, Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko, said on August 28 that the "Kuibyshev" and "Afipsky" oil refineries are key to Russia's military machine.
On August 27, the Russian government announced that it would extend its ban on gasoline exports, which was due to expire on August 31, until September 30 for gasoline producers and until October 31 for non-producers, in an attempt to stabilize the domestic fuel market.
Russia was struggling to cope with domestic gasoline demand even before the recent Ukrainian strikes and has been imposing periodic gasoline export bans since 2022, but the recent Ukrainian strikes have exacerbated gasoline shortages and caused gasoline prices to spike in Russia and occupied Ukraine.
This gasoline shortage and price spikes are likely to lead to increased consumer spending, increased business spending across industries, and fuel inflationary expectations, thereby pushing up overall inflation by increasing both direct and indirect costs across the economy and creating additional macroeconomic instability in Russia.
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes continue to put pressure on this existing nerve center in the Russian information space.
Russian intelligence services are likely tracking U.S. and European military supply routes into Europe by conducting reconnaissance operations over NATO territory. "New York Times" (NYT) reported on August 28 that Russia or unspecified Russian proxies were flying surveillance drones over routes that the United States and its allies use to transport military supplies through eastern Germany, gathering intelligence that Russia could use for its sabotage campaign or to support Russian troops in Ukraine.
The NYT reported that U.S. and EU military officials were increasingly concerned about drone flights in Germany and cited a German newspaper report that some of the drones tracking Western military supply routes were made in Iran and likely originated from ships in the Baltic Sea. US officials have confirmed the drone operations and believe Russian intelligence is responsible for the flights.
Western officials have said that Russian sabotage activities have decreased significantly in 2025 after peaking in 2024. The Center for Strategic and International Studies told the NYT that it has seen a significant drop in sabotage attacks - for the first six months of 2025. There were only four cases in Europe. The drone flights over supply routes are likely attempts by Russia to learn which companies produce weapons and how the West supplies weapons to Poland and subsequently to Ukraine.
ISW has previously observed reports that Russian intelligence services appear to be reducing the frequency of sabotage operations, but has noted that Russia may be overestimating them.
The potential drone reconnaissance efforts could represent a new iteration of Russia's hybrid operations on the European continent. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on August 28 that the Kremlin was "not aware" of the NYT reports about Russian reconnaissance aircraft.