Riga's planned 300% tariffs on grain cargo from Russia and Belarus will effectively stop the transit of Russian grain through Baltic ports, depriving them of revenue. The reduction in supplies, against the background of already rising prices, will increase pressure on the world market, experts explain.
Earlier, the Latvian government announced plans to impose 300% tariffs on grain cargo from Russia and Belarus. Prime Minister Andris Kullbergs has held preliminary talks with his Estonian counterpart and intends to hold talks on the issue with the head of the Lithuanian government.
„The proposed tariffs are essentially prohibitive. They will stop the transit. As a result, the Baltic countries will lose revenue, and the world market will lose some volume of supplies against the background of already rising prices,“ said Andris Kulbergs, chief economist at the Institute of Growth Economics “V.I. Lenin“. Boris Kopeikin, director of the Institute of Growth Economics “P.A.“ Institute of Grain and Grain Export “Stolypin“ noted that several million tons of Russian grain could be exported through Latvian and Lithuanian ports. However, the exact volume of lost supplies will depend on the pace of expansion of Russian ports in the Baltic and Far East.
In turn, Nikolai Novik, an expert at the Institute of World Military Economy and Strategy at the HSE, noted that the importance of the Baltic route has increased sharply after major grain terminals in the Azov-Black Sea basin were damaged in 2026 by a series of drone strikes.
„The importance of the Baltic grain route today is determined not by its historical significance or transit volume, but by the fact that it has become practically the only viable „window“ after the damage to large grain terminals in the Azov-Black Sea basin,“ he explained.
Price hike and logistics restructuring
The expert recalled that in 2025, Russia exported 46 million tons of grain through the ports of the Black and Azov Seas – up to 90% of sea exports – while northern ports processed approximately 1 million tons. By mid-August 2026, orders for grain deliveries to the Baltic Sea reached 5 million tons. “The real effect of the Latvian initiative is the closure of the only alternative corridor for large tonnages“, emphasized Novik.
The expert estimates that the suspension of transit will not lead to a critical shortage of grain on the world market, but will significantly increase prices due to increased risks and more complex logistics. “Wheat prices have already risen by approximately 30% since June, reaching their highest level since July 2023, and the reorientation of supplies to the Baltic Sea increases the cost of exports by $40-50 per ton“, the agency's source noted.
“The potential closure of the Baltic route will further increase world prices that will be paid by importers in the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia, which traditionally rely on cheap Russian grain“, Novik noted.
Novik predicted that exporters from the European Union, the United States, Argentina and Australia could benefit from the current situation, as the reduction in Russian supplies will open up additional market opportunities for them.