The explanation that the ayatollahs' regime must be overthrown is quite weak as an argument. There was extensive preparation for the invasion of Iraq, a long period of processing public opinion, and allies were sought. In this case, we have no such actions. Since the start of this military campaign, the US and Trump have changed their arguments several times. What is important is how the US position changes very seriously within 3-4 days.
This was said by Diana Hussein, an international analyst, Middle East specialist and communications expert, quoted by BNR.
The US has different motives than Israel, she emphasized.
For Israel, any country in the Middle East with a sufficiently strong army and weapons is an existential threat. After Iran, Israel defines Turkey as such a threat. The current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a lot of internal problems, and this is among the reasons for the strike against Iran, the analyst added.
Hussein highlighted "Trump's goal to control all the energy resources in the world", which, according to her, is not an exaggeration.
A conflict in the Middle East will not be limited to the region and between the direct participants in it, as is the case with Ukraine, the specialist on this region commented. According to her, in addition to the several countries involved, we also see direct victims. Gas on world stock exchanges for Europe has risen by 50%, oil will also rise and this is only in 48 hours, she pointed out.
Diana Hussein considers the case of the drones that reached Cyprus as an attempt to provoke and involve NATO in this military campaign. Now there is no coalition of the willing, NATO has no interest in being involved in such a war, and Iran has no interest in opening a front, she explained.
None of the currently warring countries has any interest in hitting energy infrastructure, Hussein believes.
"The Iranians have no interest in hitting oil and gas infrastructure, because they themselves are exporters. So far, neither the Americans nor the Israelis have hit such infrastructure in Iran. Israel hit schools, killing 180 children. Government buildings are being hit, but energy infrastructure is not being hit."
According to her, there are efforts to control the situation and freeze the conflict with a view to further negotiations. Efforts are already underway with Iran's partners to start talks and negotiations to freeze and end military actions, Hussein specified.
"I cannot imagine a ground operation in Iran. You don't have to be a military expert to see the size of this country - geographically and population-wise. Iran is a very colorful country in terms of ethnicities and religions."
Neither the US nor Israel has a "plan for the next day" and therefore, in the event of a collapse of power, a refugee wave is absolutely realistic, Diana Hussein pointed out. In her words, "to date, the fall of the regime does not seem possible for a number of reasons, there are currently no such indications".