A heated debate about the economic consequences of the wars and domestic politics erupted between Konstantin Prodanov from "Progressive Bulgaria" and Delyan Dobrev from GERB-SDF on bTV.
According to Prodanov, the crisis may yet deepen.
„Things may yet escalate very seriously. The longer the crisis in the Middle East continues, the longer it will take to normalize the situation,“ he said.
According to him, the longer the strait is closed, the longer it will take to normalize the situation.
“At the moment, we are not yet in a situation that can be called critical, at least from the point of view of the levels on the international oil and gas markets. They are well below the levels they reached and remained at in 2022. Meanwhile, the real incomes of the population have increased, so now we are a little better prepared to cope and bear such a shock. Of course, if the situation remains as it is, it can escalate very quickly, and therefore measures must be considered now," Prodanov believes.
For his part, Dobrev warned of an impending supply crisis: "In the coming weeks, we may witness a supply crisis. It's not that the price of oil has become 100 or 150 dollars - it's not there. There isn't enough of it. It will take between three and four weeks for the oil to reach Europe. The tankers that passed through the strait while it was open have already arrived in Asia, and very soon there will be a supply crisis in Asia, and in a week or two there will be a supply crisis in Europe as well. To this we must add the damage that the Ukrainians caused to the output oil terminals in Russia, which reduced supplies by about 2 million barrels. That is, we are talking about Russian oil to Europe. On the one hand, the Middle East is blocked, they are letting in a tanker here and there, and that to India. On the other hand, Russia has a reduced capacity for oil export“, he said.
Dobrev pointed out that our country is relatively protected, but it will not remain unaffected.
“I do not see any particular problem in our country, since we can supply oil almost unlimitedly inside the Black Sea. But that does not mean that we will not experience problems“, he said.
Prodanov emphasized the need for preparation.
“There must be a specific plan and crisis measures to protect the most vulnerable, as well as the businesses that have been hit. The measures must be targeted very specifically. The most vulnerable social groups must receive assistance in the form of vouchers, which they can decide what to use for. "Business should also be helped, but only those who are really affected," Prodanov explained.
However, Dobrev criticized the government.
“This government is doing nothing to control the crisis. They are not fighting the crisis, they are not interested in people's problems“, he said.
Prodanov highlighted the lack of investment: “Foreign investors are bypassing us. We have no competitive advantages - regulations, bureaucracy, oligarchic model.“
Dobrev responded with an emphasis on energy: “The factories of the future are data centers and artificial intelligence. They need two things - cheap electricity and an electricity grid.“